Malaga vs Alaves – 31 Jan 2027

La Liga Gameweek 22 Sun, Jan 31 · 16:00 Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga

Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played DLLDL

VS— Compare

Alaves 7th · 11 pts · 9 played LLDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel698 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Malaga—%

Draw—%

Alaves—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Málaga)

Forecast from 16 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Malaga

Alaves

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

41 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

28 AttackIn forecast 48

31 DefenceIn forecast 55

15 Form indexContext 14

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Malaga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Malaga

Alaves

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

56% Scored inContext 78%

11% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.33 ShotsContext 12.78

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38

27% On target shareContext 37%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.88

62% Box shareContext 62%

6% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 3.88

14.89 Shots allowedContext 12.33

5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

4.00 BlocksContext 4.50

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

64% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 42%

481 PassesContext 340

417 Accurate passesContext 270

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.56 FoulsContext 13.67

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33

2.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.40 ShotsContext 13.40

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

28% On target shareContext 40%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.11

64% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 10%

1.63 OffsidesContext 3.78

14.70 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.70 BlocksContext 4.22

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

66% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 43%

474 PassesContext 341

408 Accurate passesContext 271

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.90 FoulsContext 13.60

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Malaga DLLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,524 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Alaves LLDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel698 km777 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected

L18 OctA · Celta Vigo1–21.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Atletico Madrid1–21.2 xPts
D19 SepA · Athletic Club0–01.1 xPts
L15 SepH · Valencia0–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Racing Santander1–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Malaga	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan	7La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	698 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,524 km	777 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Malaga Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1Alfonso Herrero(G)

12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita

18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia

9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Alaves Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Celta Vigo (A) 1–2, 18 Oct

1Antonio Sivera(G)

21A. Rebbach 2N. Valentini 16V. Koski 17Jonny 14F. Tenaglia

10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Alaves Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Malaga · Home 0.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-3-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Alaves · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Malaga	Alaves
Getafe	L 0–1 A	W 3–0 H
Villarreal	L 1–3 H	W 1–0 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Points	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Malaga	Alaves
Scored per game	0.67	1.44
Conceded per game	2.00	1.11
Match goals	2.67	2.56
Over 1.5	78%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	56%
Over 3.5	33%	11%
Both teams scored	56%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	33%
Failed to score	44%	22%
Games	9	9

	Malaga	Alaves
Scored per game	0.67	1.40
Conceded per game	2.00	1.20
Match goals	2.67	2.60
Over 1.5	78%	70%
Over 2.5	33%	60%
Over 3.5	33%	10%
Both teams scored	56%	60%
Clean sheets	11%	30%
Failed to score	44%	20%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Malaga	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	4.29
Corners conceded	4.89	5.14
Match total	10.45	9.43	9.91
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.44	1.78
Opponent cards	2.33	2.33
Match total	4.77	4.11	4.73
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	67% 6/9	33% 3/9

	Malaga	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.00
Corners conceded	5.10	5.13
Match total	10.80	10.13	9.91
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.90
Opponent cards	2.30	2.40
Match total	4.90	4.30	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.