La Liga Gameweek 22 Sun, Jan 31 · 16:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Rayo Vallecano—%
Draw—%
Real Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 16 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
61 AttackIn forecast 89
60 DefenceIn forecast 85
66 Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 2.41
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
100% Scored inContext 89%
0% Clean sheetsContext 22%
14.38 ShotsContext 17.56
4.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.22
32% On target shareContext 41%
7.13 Shots in the boxContext 12.33
55% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13
15.88 Shots allowedContext 12.78
5.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
4.00 BlocksContext 3.44
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
61% Save rateContext 73%
51% PossessionIn forecast 53%
406 PassesContext 528
334 Accurate passesContext 476
82% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.72 Team ratingContext 7.17
12.88 FoulsContext 8.44
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.11
0.25 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 8 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.30 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
90% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.00 ShotsContext 16.90
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
32% On target shareContext 43%
6.80 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
52% Box shareContext 71%
10% ConversionContext 16%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.70 Shots allowedContext 14.20
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
4.30 BlocksContext 3.80
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
67% Save rateContext 75%
52% PossessionIn forecast 50%
403 PassesContext 501
331 Accurate passesContext 446
82% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.77 Team ratingContext 7.13
13.20 FoulsContext 8.90
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km6,557 km in 14d
Schedule load45%High
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0High · 45
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoYes
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 27 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways704 km6,557 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 42 / 4 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Getafe (A) 1–1, 19 Oct
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa 15Mujaid Sadick 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss 8Unai López
18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rayo Vallecano Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Espanyol W 2–1 H W 2–1 A
Sevilla L 1–2 A W 4–1 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 Rayo Vallecano wins4 draws5 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.70 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 30%
  • 12 Sep 2026Real Madrid4–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 1 Feb 2026Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 9 Nov 2025Rayo Vallecano0–0Real Madrid
  • 9 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 14 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano3–3Real Madrid
  • 18 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano1–1Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Rayo VallecanoReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.502.56
Conceded per game 2.131.00
Match goals 3.633.56
Over 1.5 100%78%
Over 2.5 63%78%
Over 3.5 38%56%
Both teams scored 100%67%
Clean sheets 0%22%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games89
Rayo VallecanoReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.602.70
Conceded per game 1.801.20
Match goals 3.403.90
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 30%60%
Both teams scored 90%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Rayo VallecanoReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won5.636.25
Corners conceded6.384.25
Match total12.0110.509.91
Over 8.563% 5/863% 5/8
Over 9.563% 5/863% 5/8
Over 10.563% 5/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.752.33
Opponent cards2.502.67
Match total5.255.004.73
Over 3.563% 5/878% 7/9
Over 4.563% 5/867% 6/9
Rayo VallecanoReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won5.106.30
Corners conceded6.505.00
Match total11.6011.309.91
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 10.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards3.102.20
Opponent cards2.602.50
Match total5.704.704.73
Over 3.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Rayo Vallecano8 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
4 76-90
Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 5 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Valencia Jan 3116:00 Atletico Madrid Espanyol Jan 3116:00 Villarreal Racing Santander Jan 3116:00 Malaga Alaves Jan 3116:00 Sevilla Athletic Club Jan 3116:00 Celta Vigo Getafe Jan 3116:00 Levante Real Sociedad Jan 3116:00 Real Betis Elche Jan 3116:00 Osasuna Deportivo La Coruna Jan 3116:00 Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid Jan 3116:00