Manchester City vs Brighton – 7 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 21 Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 2nd · 42 pts · 20 played WWWDD

1–1Full time

Brighton 10th · 28 pts · 20 played LDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were clear favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 75). Manchester City had 3.1 days of rest, Brighton 4.2 and had to travel 326 km.

Away travel326 kmRest days3.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Manchester City63%

Draw21%

Brighton16%

Expected goals 2.17 – 1.01

Manchester City61%

Draw23%

Brighton17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.92

Manchester City63%

Draw21%

Brighton16%

Expected goals 2.17 – 1.01

Manchester City56%

Draw23%

Brighton21%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.13

Manchester City61%

Draw23%

Brighton17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.92

Over 2.5 62% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 97

Team strength

Manchester City

Brighton

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

92 AttackIn forecast 87

82 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Brighton

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

85% Scored inContext 80%

45% Clean sheetsContext 25%

14.20 ShotsContext 13.55

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

37% On target shareContext 33%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

74% Box shareContext 63%

16% ConversionContext 11%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.33

9.35 Shots allowedContext 12.25

3.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.15

2.79 BlocksContext 3.44

2.35 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

72% Save rateContext 70%

59% PossessionIn forecast 53%

569 PassesContext 467

500 Accurate passesContext 395

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.11 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.85 FoulsContext 12.10

10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.45

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.30 ShotsContext 14.50

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

42% On target shareContext 30%

11.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

80% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 9%

1.38 OffsidesContext 1.71

9.90 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.44 BlocksContext 4.44

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

67% Save rateContext 75%

59% PossessionIn forecast 57%

579 PassesContext 514

511 Accurate passesContext 440

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.70 FoulsContext 11.80

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km522 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel326 km286 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan	4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	326 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	522 km	286 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	9.7	12

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

25G. Donnarumma(G)

6N. Aké 68M. Alleyne 45A. Khusanov 27M. Nunes

14Nico González

11J. Doku 47P. Foden 4T. Reijnders 20Bernardo Silva

9E. Haaland

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

29M. De Cuyper 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 13J. Hinshelwood

30P. Groß 26Y. Ayari

22K. Mitoma 25D. Gómez 24F. Kadıoğlu

10G. Rutter

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brighton+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 2.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 8-1-1
Scored: 2.60
Conceded: 0.70

Brighton · Away 0.90points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Manchester City	Brighton
Chelsea	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 A
Sunderland	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	D 0–0 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 A
West Ham	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 3–0 A	D 0–0 A
Fulham	W 5–4 A	D 1–1 H
Leeds	W 3–2 H	W 3–0 H
Newcastle	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Liverpool	W 3–0 H	L 0–2 A
Bournemouth	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	L 3–4 H
Everton	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 A
Brentford	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Burnley	W 5–1 H	W 2–0 H
Arsenal	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Manchester United	W 3–0 H	L 2–4 A
Tottenham	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 H
Wolves	W 4–0 A	D 1–1 A
Points	42 of 57 · 2.21 per game	25 of 57 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Manchester City wins2 draws3 Brighton wins

Goals per game2.30 – 1.30 Over 2.590% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%

31 Aug 2025Brighton2–1Manchester City
15 Mar 2025Manchester City2–2Brighton
9 Nov 2024Brighton2–1Manchester City
25 Apr 2024Brighton0–4Manchester City
21 Oct 2023Manchester City2–1Brighton
24 May 2023Brighton1–1Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.50
Conceded per game	0.90	1.35
Match goals	3.10	2.85	3.18
Over 1.5	85%	90%
Over 2.5	65%	55%	62%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	45%	65%	57%
Clean sheets	45%	25%
Failed to score	15%	20%
Games	20	20

	Manchester City	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.30
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	3.40	2.50	3.18
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	62%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	4.80
Corners conceded	4.11	4.55
Match total	9.74	9.35	9.89
Over 8.5	74% 14/19	60% 12/20
Over 9.5	53% 10/19	55% 11/20
Over 10.5	42% 8/19	45% 9/20
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.45
Opponent cards	1.70	2.20
Match total	3.40	4.65	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 10/20	75% 15/20
Over 4.5	30% 6/20	45% 9/20

	Manchester City	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.80
Corners conceded	3.44	5.10
Match total	8.77	9.90	9.89
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	1.90
Match total	3.20	4.40	3.80
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 97 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.59league 3.67

Red cards0.14league 0.10

Cards 5+38%league 37%

Fouls22.0league 21.4

Penalties0.18league 0.20

Home wins48%league 45%

Manchester City1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W20 May 25H · Bournemouth3–12

Brighton2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D21 Jan 23A · Leicester2–21
L30 Aug 22A · Fulham1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.