Manchester City vs Burnley – 27 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 27 · 15:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 9th · 7 pts · 5 played WLLWD

5–1Full time

Burnley 17th · 4 pts · 5 played LWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were clear favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 61). Manchester City usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Manchester City had 5.9 days of rest, Burnley 7 and had to travel 35 km.

Away travel35 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Manchester City67%

Draw20%

Burnley14%

Expected goals 2.24 – 0.92

Manchester City65%

Draw21%

Burnley14%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.86

Manchester City68%

Draw19%

Burnley13%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.90

Manchester City59%

Draw22%

Burnley18%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.03

Manchester City65%

Draw21%

Burnley14%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.87

Over 2.5 61% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 124

Team strength

Manchester City

Burnley

87 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

92 AttackIn forecast 27

82 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Burnley

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 0.82

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.09

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 8.40

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

36% On target shareContext 33%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

70% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

11.40 Shots allowedContext 19.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.60 BlocksContext 6.40

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

75% Save rateContext 76%

52% PossessionIn forecast 34%

475 PassesContext 304

407 Accurate passesContext 222

86% Pass accuracyContext 73%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.71

9.20 FoulsContext 9.40

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.65

80% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.50 ShotsContext 10.70

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

31% On target shareContext 41%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

64% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 18%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.63

8.70 Shots allowedContext 15.10

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.44 BlocksContext 5.10

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

77% Save rateContext 76%

58% PossessionIn forecast 47%

551 PassesContext 397

486 Accurate passesContext 321

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.16 Team ratingContext 6.93

7.60 FoulsContext 9.10

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

0.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Burnley

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel35 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Burnley
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Sep	7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	35 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

25G. Donnarumma(G)

33N. O'Reilly 24J. Gvardiol 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes

14Nico González

11J. Doku 47P. Foden 4T. Reijnders 26Savinho

9E. Haaland

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Burnley Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

3Q. Hartman 5M. Estève 18H. Ekdal 29J. Laurent 2K. Walker

11J. Anthony 16Florentino 24J. Cullen 17L. Tchaouna

9L. Foster

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Burnley Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City-0.8 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Burnley+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Burnley · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Manchester City	Burnley
Manchester United	W 3–0 H	L 2–3 A
Tottenham	L 0–2 H	L 0–3 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

6 Manchester City wins0 draws0 Burnley wins

Goals per game2.83 – 0.17 Over 2.550% Both scored17% Clean sheets83% · 0%

31 Jan 2024Manchester City3–1Burnley
11 Aug 2023Burnley0–3Manchester City
2 Apr 2022Burnley0–2Manchester City
16 Oct 2021Manchester City2–0Burnley
3 Feb 2021Burnley0–2Manchester City
28 Nov 2020Manchester City5–0Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	2.80	2.60	3.15
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	5	5

	Manchester City	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	2.80	2.60	3.15
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	3.00
Corners conceded	4.80	6.80
Match total	8.20	9.80	9.71
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.60
Opponent cards	1.60	1.00
Match total	3.00	2.60	3.71
Over 3.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	20% 1/5

	Manchester City	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	3.70
Corners conceded	3.30	5.20
Match total	8.70	8.90	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	0.90	1.80
Opponent cards	1.60	2.10
Match total	2.50	3.90	3.71
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.57

Red cards0.11league 0.16

Cards 5+40%league 39%

Fouls23.0league 22.4

Penalties0.25league 0.24

Home wins45%league 47%

Manchester City7 with this referee

Record6-1-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds2

D7 Dec 24A · Crystal Palace2–22
W21 Oct 23H · Brighton2–14
W19 Aug 23H · Newcastle1–01
W8 Apr 23A · Southampton4–12
W11 Mar 23A · Crystal Palace1–02

Burnley2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D18 Sep 23A · Nottingham Forest1–14
L27 Dec 20A · Leeds0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.