Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 69). Manchester City usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Manchester City had 12.9 days of rest, Everton 13 and had to travel 50 km.
Away travel50 kmRest days12.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester City64%
Draw21%
Everton16%
Manchester City61%
Draw23%
Everton17%
Manchester City64%
Draw21%
Everton16%
Manchester City56%
Draw23%
Everton21%
Manchester City61%
Draw22%
Everton17%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 74
Team strength
Manchester City
Everton
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
92
AttackIn forecast
61
83
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityEverton
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
86%
Scored inContext
71%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.29
ShotsContext
11.86
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
37%
On target shareContext
30%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
68%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.29
Shots allowedContext
13.29
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
2.86
BlocksContext
5.57
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
74%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
539
PassesContext
387
471
Accurate passesContext
307
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.99
8.14
FoulsContext
10.29
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.43
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.60
ShotsContext
12.10
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
35%
On target shareContext
36%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
69%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.60
9.40
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.89
BlocksContext
4.80
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
579
PassesContext
380
514
Accurate passesContext
304
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.11
Team ratingContext
7.07
7.70
FoulsContext
9.60
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km515 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 50 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 515 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
6N. Aké
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
14Nico González
11J. Doku
47P. Foden
4T. Reijnders
26Savinho
9E. Haaland
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
27I. Gueye
37J. Garner
24C. Alcaraz
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
9Beto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Everton+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Everton · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | W 4–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Manchester City wins2 draws0 Everton wins
Goals per game2.40 – 0.40
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 19 Apr 2025Everton0–2Manchester City
- 26 Dec 2024Manchester City1–1Everton
- 10 Feb 2024Manchester City2–0Everton
- 27 Dec 2023Everton1–3Manchester City
- 14 May 2023Everton0–3Manchester City
- 31 Dec 2022Manchester City1–1Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.29 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Manchester City | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.29 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.28 | 7.57 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 4.71 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Manchester City | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.60 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.10 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.83
Red cards0.12league 0.14
Cards 5+30%league 44%
Fouls21.2league 22.3
Penalties0.24league 0.21
Home wins45%league 48%
Manchester City1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Oct 24H · Southampton1–01
Everton5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.3.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 May 25A · Newcastle1–04
- L29 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest0–24
- D2 Apr 24A · Newcastle1–13
- D24 Feb 24A · Brighton1–13
- L19 Oct 22A · Newcastle0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City7 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Everton7 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
