Manchester City vs Leeds – 29 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 29 · 15:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 3rd · 22 pts · 12 played WLWWL

3–2Full time

Leeds 18th · 11 pts · 12 played LWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were clear favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 59). Manchester City had 6.9 days of rest, Leeds 6 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Manchester City71%

Draw18%

Leeds12%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.89

Manchester City68%

Draw20%

Leeds12%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.82

Manchester City70%

Draw18%

Leeds12%

Expected goals 2.39 – 0.90

Manchester City63%

Draw21%

Leeds16%

Expected goals 2.16 – 1.00

Manchester City68%

Draw20%

Leeds12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Over 2.5 64% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 109

Team strength

Manchester City

Leeds

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

92 AttackIn forecast 69

82 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Leeds

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.92

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

1.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

83% Scored inContext 58%

42% Clean sheetsContext 17%

14.08 ShotsContext 12.17

5.08 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.58

36% On target shareContext 30%

10.17 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

72% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.17 Shots allowedContext 10.83

3.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.92

2.75 BlocksContext 3.40

2.42 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.45

76% Save rateContext 64%

57% PossessionIn forecast 48%

547 PassesContext 427

480 Accurate passesContext 353

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.70

9.25 FoulsContext 10.67

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.40 ShotsContext 12.20

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

40% On target shareContext 32%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

74% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

8.00 Shots allowedContext 10.50

2.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.60 BlocksContext 3.38

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

76% Save rateContext 63%

60% PossessionIn forecast 49%

596 PassesContext 436

537 Accurate passesContext 361

90% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.90 FoulsContext 11.10

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km342 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel57 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov	6Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	342 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-3-2-1

25G. Donnarumma(G)

33N. O'Reilly 24J. Gvardiol 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes

4T. Reijnders 14Nico González 20Bernardo Silva

11J. Doku 47P. Foden

9E. Haaland

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Lucas Perri(G)

24J. Justin 5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 2J. Bogle

44I. Gruev 4E. Ampadu 22A. Tanaka

29D. Gnonto 14L. Nmecha 7D. James

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City+0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Leeds-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 2.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 5-0-1
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 0.67

Leeds · Away 0.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-5
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Manchester City	Leeds
Newcastle	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Bournemouth	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 H
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Everton	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 H
Burnley	W 5–1 H	L 0–2 A
Arsenal	D 1–1 A	L 0–5 A
Brighton	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 A
Tottenham	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Wolves	W 4–0 A	W 3–1 A
Points	13 of 27 · 1.44 per game	8 of 27 · 0.89 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Manchester City wins1 draws1 Leeds wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.83 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

6 May 2023Manchester City2–1Leeds
28 Dec 2022Leeds1–3Manchester City
30 Apr 2022Leeds0–4Manchester City
14 Dec 2021Manchester City7–0Leeds
10 Apr 2021Manchester City1–2Leeds
3 Oct 2020Leeds1–1Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.92
Conceded per game	0.83	1.83
Match goals	2.83	2.75	3.31
Over 1.5	83%	75%
Over 2.5	58%	67%	64%
Over 3.5	25%	33%
Both teams scored	42%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	42%	17%
Failed to score	17%	42%
Games	12	12

	Manchester City	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.80	1.70
Match goals	2.80	2.70	3.31
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	64%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	5.92	4.55
Corners conceded	4.42	3.18
Match total	10.34	7.73	9.90
Over 8.5	75% 9/12	45% 5/11
Over 9.5	58% 7/12	36% 4/11
Over 10.5	58% 7/12	18% 2/11
Cards
Cards	1.75	1.75
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	3.75	3.25	3.80
Over 3.5	67% 8/12	33% 4/12
Over 4.5	33% 4/12	25% 3/12

	Manchester City	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	4.56
Corners conceded	4.20	3.44
Match total	10.40	8.00	9.90
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.60
Match total	4.30	3.50	3.80
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 109 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 3.69

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 41%

Fouls21.5league 22.0

Penalties0.15league 0.18

Home wins49%league 52%

Manchester City8 with this referee

Record3-1-4 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L23 Aug 25H · Tottenham0–21
W2 May 25H · Wolves1–00
L2 Feb 25A · Arsenal1–50
L21 Dec 24A · Aston Villa1–23
W5 Oct 24H · Fulham3–22

Leeds8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 0

D30 Aug 25H · Newcastle0–01
L21 May 23A · West Ham1–33
L22 Apr 23A · Fulham1–24
W25 Feb 23H · Southampton1–02
D22 Jan 23H · Brentford0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.