Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
3rd · 28 pts · 14 played
WWLWW
3–0Full time
Sunderland
6th · 23 pts · 14 played
DDLWD
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 47). Manchester City usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Manchester City had 3.8 days of rest, Sunderland 2.8 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Manchester City77%
Draw15%
Sunderland8%
Manchester City75%
Draw16%
Sunderland9%
Manchester City77%
Draw15%
Sunderland8%
Manchester City71%
Draw18%
Sunderland11%
Manchester City75%
Draw16%
Sunderland9%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 122
Team strength
Manchester CitySunderland
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
92
AttackIn forecast
62
82
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CitySunderland
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
86%
Scored inContext
71%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
14.14
ShotsContext
9.71
5.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
37%
On target shareContext
32%
10.36
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
73%
Box shareContext
71%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.83
9.36
Shots allowedContext
15.07
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
2.71
BlocksContext
4.43
2.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
65%
Save rateContext
81%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
542
PassesContext
369
475
Accurate passesContext
292
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.64
FoulsContext
9.79
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.60
ShotsContext
9.90
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
42%
On target shareContext
35%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
76%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
8.70
Shots allowedContext
17.10
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.70
BlocksContext
5.00
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
61%
Save rateContext
78%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
547
PassesContext
343
485
Accurate passesContext
266
89%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.50
FoulsContext
10.50
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km865 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Sunderland
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel168 km1,165 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Dec | 2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 865 km | 1,165 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
47P. Foden
14Nico González
20Bernardo Silva
11J. Doku
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
6L. Geertruida
20N. Mukiele
28E. Le Fée
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
25B. Traoré
18W. Isidor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-1
- Scored
- 2.71
- Conceded
- 0.86
Sunderland · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | W 5–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Manchester United | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Wolves | W 4–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 25 of 30 · 2.50 per game | 13 of 30 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.29 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 36% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Manchester City | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.36 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 8.14 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 11/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 7/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 7/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 3.78 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Manchester City | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.00 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 3.64
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+29%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 21.9
Penalties0.14league 0.19
Home wins48%league 49%
Manchester City10 with this referee
Record6-2-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 May 25A · Fulham2–00
- W15 Feb 25H · Newcastle4–00
- L25 May 24H · Manchester United1–21
- W3 Mar 24H · Manchester United3–10
- D17 Feb 24H · Chelsea1–11
Sunderland2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Oct 25A · Chelsea2–11
- W11 Nov 22A · Birmingham2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City14 games · scored 32 · conceded 16
4
0-15
5
2
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sunderland14 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
1
0-15
7
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
