Manchester City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Manchester City
3rd · 28 pts · 14 played
WWLWW
3–0Full time
Sunderland
6th · 23 pts · 14 played
DDLWD
Manchester City77.3%fair odds 1.29
Draw14.8%fair odds 6.76
Sunderland7.9%fair odds 12.59
Expected goals2.66 – 0.77total 3.43
Likeliest score2–011.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sunderland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Manchester City ↓ · Sunderland → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Manchester City goals, columns Sunderland goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.5%8.70
- 3–010.2%9.80
- 2–18.8%11.36
- 1–08.3%12.08
- 3–17.8%12.79
- 1–17.0%14.37
- 4–06.8%14.70
- 4–15.2%19.20
- 5–03.6%27.59
- 0–03.6%27.87
Winning margin
35.0%
Manchester City by 3+
fair 2.85
21.6%
Manchester City by 2
fair 4.63
20.6%
Manchester City by 1
fair 4.85
14.8%
Draw
fair 6.76
5.7%
Sunderland by 1
fair 17.60
1.8%
Sunderland by 2
fair 56.04
0.5%
Sunderland by 3+
fair 210.78
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
Manchester City goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
28%4+
Sunderland goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 77.3% | 75.0% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 14.8% | 16.3% | -1.5 pp |
| Sunderland win | 7.9% | 8.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 61.9% | +4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.1% | 47.8% | +2.3 pp |
| Expected goals Manchester City | 2.66 | 2.46 | +0.20 |
| Expected goals Sunderland | 0.77 | 0.73 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Manchester City win77.3%1.29
- Draw14.8%6.76
- Sunderland win7.9%12.59
- Double chance Manchester City or draw92.1%1.09
- Double chance Manchester City or Sunderland85.2%1.17
- Double chance Sunderland or draw22.7%4.40
- Draw no bet Manchester City90.7%1.10
- Draw no bet Sunderland9.3%10.73
Goals
- Over 0.596.4%1.04
- Over 1.586.0%1.16
- Over 2.566.6%1.50
- Over 3.544.8%2.23
- Over 4.526.1%3.83
- Under 1.514.0%7.15
- Under 2.533.4%2.99
- Under 3.555.2%1.81
Both teams to score
- Yes50.1%1.99
- No49.9%2.01
- Yes and over 2.543.2%2.32
- Manchester City win and yes34.4%2.91
- Draw and yes11.2%8.93
- Sunderland win and yes4.6%21.91
Team goals
- Manchester City over 0.593.0%1.07
- Manchester City over 1.574.5%1.34
- Manchester City over 2.549.8%2.01
- Sunderland over 0.553.5%1.87
- Sunderland over 1.517.9%5.59
- Sunderland over 2.54.3%23.46
- Manchester City clean sheet46.5%2.15
- Sunderland clean sheet7.0%14.36
- Manchester City win to nil42.9%2.33
- Sunderland win to nil3.4%29.62
Handicap
- Manchester City −1.556.6%1.77
- Manchester City −2.535.0%2.85
- Sunderland +1.543.4%2.31
- Sunderland +2.565.0%1.54
- Sunderland −1.52.3%44.27
- Manchester City +1.597.7%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored141
Favourite won54.6%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.597
Over 2.5 called right56.0%
BTTS called right53.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 44.9% | 47.3% |
| 50–60% | 37 | 54.1% | 56.8% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 73.0% | 61.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 111 of 141 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5951 | 0.5799 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 55.0% | 54.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 111 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 141 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.