Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Manchester United. Manchester United had 6.9 days of rest, Fulham 8 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days6.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester United54%
Draw24%
Fulham23%
Manchester United48%
Draw26%
Fulham26%
Manchester United53%
Draw24%
Fulham23%
Manchester United46%
Draw25%
Fulham29%
Manchester United52%
Draw25%
Fulham23%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 97
Team strength
Manchester United
Fulham
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
72
AttackIn forecast
66
80
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedFulham
1.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
87%
Scored inContext
83%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
16.17
ShotsContext
11.78
5.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
35%
On target shareContext
31%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
65%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.05
11.13
Shots allowedContext
11.52
3.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.04
3.48
BlocksContext
3.39
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
455
PassesContext
474
373
Accurate passesContext
397
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.05
FoulsContext
11.04
11.09
Fouls sufferedContext
9.39
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.70
ShotsContext
12.60
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
32%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
65%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.50
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.11
BlocksContext
3.40
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
454
PassesContext
535
378
Accurate passesContext
454
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.70
FoulsContext
8.80
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
7.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
15Jorge Cuenca
5J. Andersen
21T. Castagne
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
19S. Chukwueze
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Fulham-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
1.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-2
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 1.18
Fulham · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | L 4–5 H |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Bournemouth | D 4–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Everton | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 37 of 66 · 1.68 per game | 33 of 66 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Manchester United wins2 draws1 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.78
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 24 Aug 2025Fulham1–1Manchester United
- 26 Jan 2025Fulham0–1Manchester United
- 16 Aug 2024Manchester United1–0Fulham
- 24 Feb 2024Manchester United1–2Fulham
- 4 Nov 2023Fulham0–1Manchester United
- 28 May 2023Manchester United2–1Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.78 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 52% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 61% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Manchester United | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.48 | 4.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.48 | 10.30 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 13/23 | 78% 18/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 7/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.35 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 3.79 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 12/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Manchester United | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.90 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.10 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 97 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 3.71
Red cards0.12league 0.11
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 21.3
Penalties0.23league 0.20
Home wins55%league 45%
Manchester United9 with this referee
Record7-2-0
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W16 Jan 25H · Southampton3–11
- W1 Dec 24H · Everton4–02
- D27 Apr 24H · Burnley1–11
- W17 Mar 24H · Liverpool4–33
- D14 Jan 24H · Tottenham2–22
Fulham5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Nov 25H · Wolves3–01
- D26 Oct 24A · Everton1–10
- L4 Nov 23H · Manchester United0–15
- D29 Oct 22H · Everton0–02
- D13 Aug 22A · Wolves0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United23 games · scored 41 · conceded 34
4
3
0-15
6
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
9
76-90
Fulham23 games · scored 32 · conceded 32
5
0-15
1
6
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
10
46-60
6
1
61-75
9
9
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
