Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
4th · 41 pts · 24 played
DDWWW
2–0Full time
Tottenham
14th · 29 pts · 24 played
DLLDD
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 71). Absences weigh more on Tottenham. Manchester United had 5.9 days of rest, Tottenham 5.8 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days5.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United51%
Draw24%
Tottenham25%
Manchester United49%
Draw26%
Tottenham25%
Manchester United49%
Draw24%
Tottenham27%
Manchester United43%
Draw25%
Tottenham32%
Manchester United50%
Draw25%
Tottenham25%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 200
Team strength
Manchester UnitedTottenham
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
72
AttackIn forecast
56
80
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedTottenham
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
88%
Scored inContext
83%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
16.04
ShotsContext
11.04
5.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.96
35%
On target shareContext
36%
11.04
Shots in the boxContext
7.91
66%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.05
OffsidesContext
1.95
11.25
Shots allowedContext
11.75
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.55
BlocksContext
3.09
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
62%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
454
PassesContext
424
373
Accurate passesContext
347
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.87
FoulsContext
11.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.29
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.58
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.30
ShotsContext
14.10
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
37%
On target shareContext
39%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
66%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
3.17
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
4.33
BlocksContext
3.60
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
443
PassesContext
443
369
Accurate passesContext
362
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.10
FoulsContext
11.00
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tottenham
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 583 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
19B. Mbeumo
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
10Matheus Cunha
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
13I. Udogie
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
14A. Gray
29P. Sarr
6João Palhinha
22C. Gallagher
7X. Simons
19D. Solanke
28W. Odobert
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+2.8 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Tottenham-1.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-2
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.25
Tottenham · Away
1.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Arsenal | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Bournemouth | D 4–4 H | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Everton | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 40 of 69 · 1.74 per game | 28 of 69 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
3 Manchester United wins3 draws4 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.50
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 8 Nov 2025Tottenham2–2Manchester United
- 21 May 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
- 16 Feb 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
- 29 Sep 2024Manchester United0–3Tottenham
- 14 Jan 2024Manchester United2–2Tottenham
- 19 Aug 2023Tottenham2–0Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.83 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 58% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.70 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.42 | 5.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.08 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.18 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 13/24 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 7/24 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 4.50 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 9/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 7.78 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.40 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.72
Red cards0.14league 0.11
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls22.4league 21.3
Penalties0.23league 0.20
Home wins42%league 45%
Manchester United17 with this referee
Record6-4-7
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- L21 Dec 25A · Aston Villa1–22
- W19 Oct 25A · Liverpool2–12
- L13 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–42
- D5 Jan 25A · Liverpool2–24
- L24 Feb 24H · Fulham1–22
Tottenham14 with this referee
Record5-4-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds3
- L23 Nov 25A · Arsenal1–43
- W16 Aug 25H · Burnley3–00
- D4 May 25A · West Ham1–12
- L28 Apr 24H · Arsenal2–32
- D3 Feb 24A · Everton2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United24 games · scored 44 · conceded 36
4
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
11
11
76-90
Tottenham24 games · scored 35 · conceded 33
3
6
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
10
31-45
7
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
10
9
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
