Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 25 Sat, Mar 7 · 15:30
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Moreirense had 5.9 days of rest, Nacional 6.9 and had to travel 1,230 km.
Away travel1,230 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Moreirense45%
Draw29%
Nacional26%
Moreirense52%
Draw25%
Nacional23%
Moreirense45%
Draw29%
Nacional26%
Moreirense38%
Draw29%
Nacional32%
Moreirense46%
Draw28%
Nacional27%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 6
Team strength
Moreirense
Nacional
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
17
AttackIn forecast
15
27
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseNacional
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
75%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.83
ShotsContext
11.92
3.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.96
38%
On target shareContext
33%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.73
59%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.72
OffsidesContext
2.19
12.46
Shots allowedContext
14.29
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.39
BlocksContext
4.04
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
66%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
419
PassesContext
312
349
Accurate passesContext
237
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.92
FoulsContext
14.33
15.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.40
ShotsContext
13.40
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
42%
On target shareContext
32%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
58%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.60
BlocksContext
3.20
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
69%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
442
PassesContext
344
369
Accurate passesContext
272
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.90
FoulsContext
14.40
17.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km467 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,230 km2,396 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 467 km | 2,396 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
71Leandro Santos
8M. Stjepanović
21Rodri Alonso
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
2Diogo Travassos
9Luís Semedo
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
28Liziero
6Matheus Dias
11Paulinho Bóia
8Miguel Baeza
27Gabriel Veron
9J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.45
Nacional · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Rio Ave | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Alverca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Famalicao | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 34 of 69 · 1.48 per game | 18 of 69 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Moreirense wins1 draws2 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 4 Oct 2025Nacional3–2Moreirense
- 27 Apr 2025Moreirense1–1Nacional
- 14 Dec 2024Nacional1–0Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 54% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Moreirense | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.00 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.23 | 5.87 | |
| Match total | 8.37 | 10.04 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 7/22 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 5% 1/22 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 5.34 | 5.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 16/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 12/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Moreirense | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 9.67 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.20 | 5.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.83
Red cards0.17league 0.27
Cards 5+33%league 59%
Fouls25.2league 27.0
Penalties0.67league 0.45
Home wins33%league 42%
Moreirense1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Sep 25H · Rio Ave3–11
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Moreirense24 games · scored 30 · conceded 34
6
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
7
9
46-60
8
5
61-75
5
9
76-90
Nacional24 games · scored 28 · conceded 36
2
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
6
31-45
6
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
7
11
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
