Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nacional were slight favourites.
Nacional were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 12). Nacional had 7 days of rest, AVS 5.8 and had to travel.
Rest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Nacional54%
Draw26%
AVS20%
Nacional56%
Draw24%
AVS20%
Nacional54%
Draw26%
AVS20%
Nacional46%
Draw28%
AVS26%
Nacional55%
Draw25%
AVS21%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 8
Team strength
Nacional
AVS
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
15
AttackIn forecast
17
13
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalAVS
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
68%
Scored inContext
45%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.06
ShotsContext
10.06
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
35%
On target shareContext
27%
7.31
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
57%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.05
14.03
Shots allowedContext
14.58
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.39
4.03
BlocksContext
3.43
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.47
71%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
321
PassesContext
296
246
Accurate passesContext
219
77%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.61
14.32
FoulsContext
13.45
11.55
Fouls sufferedContext
10.68
2.74
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
50%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.30
ShotsContext
10.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
27%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
4.70
53%
Box shareContext
49%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.60
BlocksContext
3.80
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
77%
Save rateContext
81%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
334
PassesContext
263
261
Accurate passesContext
188
78%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.80
FoulsContext
13.60
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,349 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
AVS
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,349 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
22Filipe Soares
15C. Labidi
11Paulinho Bóia
10Daniel Júnior
27Gabriel Veron
9J. Ramírez
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
8Pedro Lima
70Roni
19Tiago Galletto
21G. Neiva
20Diego Duarte
11B. Akinsola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
1.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-8
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.40
AVS · Away
0.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-5-10
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Alverca | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Benfica | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Estoril | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Moreirense | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Arouca | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H | D 1–1 HL 0–6 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Santa Clara | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 30 of 90 · 1.00 per game | 13 of 90 · 0.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Nacional wins2 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Dec 2025AVS2–2Nacional
- 19 Jan 2025Nacional3–1AVS
- 10 Aug 2024AVS1–1Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 2.81 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 58% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 42% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 55% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Nacional | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.12 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.54 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 9.66 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 21/30 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 20/30 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 16/30 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.94 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.45 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 5.39 | 4.45 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 22/31 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 68% 21/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Nacional | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 11.25 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.10 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 4.82
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+38%league 57%
Fouls25.3league 26.8
Penalties0.50league 0.44
Home wins38%league 41%
Nacional1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Mar 26A · Moreirense1–12
AVSNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional31 games · scored 34 · conceded 41
3
8
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
7
7
61-75
7
11
76-90
AVS31 games · scored 22 · conceded 65
1
10
0-15
2
10
16-30
5
11
31-45
3
13
46-60
5
12
61-75
6
9
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
