Newcastle vs Arsenal – 28 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 28 · 16:30 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 15th · 6 pts · 5 played DLDWD

1–2Full time

Arsenal 7th · 10 pts · 5 played WWLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 78). Newcastle had 7.1 days of rest, Arsenal 7 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle28%

Draw25%

Arsenal47%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.69

Newcastle27%

Draw26%

Arsenal46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.56

Newcastle27%

Draw25%

Arsenal48%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.70

Newcastle22%

Draw23%

Arsenal55%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.90

Newcastle28%

Draw26%

Arsenal46%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.55

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 89

Team strength

Newcastle

Arsenal

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 92

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

61 AttackIn forecast 86

61 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Arsenal

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

0.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.66

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

40% Scored inContext 80%

80% Clean sheetsContext 60%

10.80 ShotsContext 13.20

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

24% On target shareContext 26%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

52% Box shareContext 73%

6% ConversionContext 15%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.67

7.40 Shots allowedContext 8.80

2.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.00 BlocksContext 4.25

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

77% Save rateContext 87%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

417 PassesContext 465

334 Accurate passesContext 401

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.11

12.60 FoulsContext 11.20

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

0.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

50% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.10 ShotsContext 14.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

33% On target shareContext 32%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

61% Box shareContext 74%

6% ConversionContext 12%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.86

9.70 Shots allowedContext 10.10

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.33 BlocksContext 3.78

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

76% Save rateContext 80%

50% PossessionIn forecast 56%

409 PassesContext 455

333 Accurate passesContext 390

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.96 Team ratingContext 7.09

11.30 FoulsContext 10.90

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel398 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Sep	7Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	946 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 21V. Livramento

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 23J. Murphy

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 3Cristhian Mosquera 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi

19L. Trossard 10E. Eze 7B. Saka

14V. Gyökeres

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arsenal-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Arsenal · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Arsenal
Leeds	D 0–0 A	W 5–0 H
Liverpool	L 2–3 H	L 0–1 A
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Newcastle wins1 draws6 Arsenal wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.40 Over 2.520% Both scored10% Clean sheets40% · 60%

18 May 2025Arsenal1–0Newcastle
2 Nov 2024Newcastle1–0Arsenal
24 Feb 2024Arsenal4–1Newcastle
4 Nov 2023Newcastle1–0Arsenal
7 May 2023Newcastle0–2Arsenal
3 Jan 2023Arsenal0–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	2.00
Conceded per game	0.60	0.40
Match goals	1.20	2.40	2.95
Over 1.5	20%	60%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	20%	59%
Clean sheets	80%	60%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	5	5

	Newcastle	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	2.00
Conceded per game	0.60	0.40
Match goals	1.20	2.40	2.95
Over 1.5	20%	60%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	20%	59%
Clean sheets	80%	60%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	6.60
Corners conceded	3.60	2.40
Match total	9.40	9.00	9.98
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.60
Opponent cards	2.40	1.60
Match total	3.80	3.20	3.91
Over 3.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	20% 1/5

	Newcastle	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	6.00
Corners conceded	4.40	3.10
Match total	10.40	9.10	9.98
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	2.80	1.50
Match total	4.60	3.70	3.91
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 89 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.76

Red cards0.11league 0.16

Cards 5+36%league 41%

Fouls20.0league 22.1

Penalties0.21league 0.21

Home wins42%league 47%

Newcastle10 with this referee

Record4-5-1 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 0

L19 Apr 25A · Aston Villa1–43
W23 Feb 25H · Nottingham Forest4–31
D28 Sep 24H · Manchester City1–14
D27 Feb 24A · Blackburn1–12
D28 May 23A · Chelsea1–10

Arsenal8 with this referee

Record6-0-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

W23 Aug 25H · Leeds5–00
L3 May 25H · Bournemouth1–20
W15 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–03
W17 Aug 24H · Wolves2–02
W17 Feb 24A · Burnley5–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.