Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Newcastle
15th · 12 pts · 11 played
WLWLL
2–1Full time
Manchester City
3rd · 22 pts · 11 played
WWLWW
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 78). Absences weigh more on Newcastle. Newcastle had 13.1 days of rest, Manchester City 13 and had to travel 171 km.
Away travel171 kmRest days13.1 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Newcastle29%
Draw25%
Manchester City46%
Newcastle30%
Draw27%
Manchester City43%
Newcastle30%
Draw25%
Manchester City44%
Newcastle23%
Draw24%
Manchester City53%
Newcastle29%
Draw27%
Manchester City44%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 67
Team strength
NewcastleManchester City
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
61
AttackIn forecast
92
61
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleManchester City
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.09
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.73
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
73%
Scored inContext
82%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.91
ShotsContext
13.82
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.18
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.09
Shots in the boxContext
9.82
57%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.64
Shots allowedContext
9.18
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.89
BlocksContext
2.91
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
74%
Save rateContext
79%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
432
PassesContext
543
353
Accurate passesContext
476
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.70
FoulsContext
9.36
12.82
Fouls sufferedContext
11.36
1.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.70
ShotsContext
14.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
39%
On target shareContext
43%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
62%
Box shareContext
71%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.50
Shots allowedContext
8.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
4.11
BlocksContext
2.90
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
80%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
446
PassesContext
575
369
Accurate passesContext
514
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.15
11.00
FoulsContext
10.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km795 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel171 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 171 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 795 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
1N. Pope(G)
3L. Hall
5F. Schär
12M. Thiaw
21V. Livramento
11H. Barnes
7Joelinton
39Bruno Guimarães
8S. Tonali
23J. Murphy
27N. Woltemade
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
20Bernardo Silva
14Nico González
47P. Foden
11J. Doku
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Manchester City+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.20
Manchester City · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Liverpool | L 2–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 21 · 0.71 per game | 13 of 21 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Newcastle wins2 draws8 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.90
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets0% · 60%
- 15 Feb 2025Manchester City4–0Newcastle
- 28 Sep 2024Newcastle1–1Manchester City
- 16 Mar 2024Manchester City2–0Newcastle
- 13 Jan 2024Newcastle2–3Manchester City
- 19 Aug 2023Manchester City1–0Newcastle
- 4 Mar 2023Manchester City2–0Newcastle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 0.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 2.82 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 36% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Newcastle | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.45 | 5.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 10.00 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.36 | 3.73 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 4/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Newcastle | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 10.20 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.40 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.68
Red cards0.07league 0.10
Cards 5+34%league 41%
Fouls20.7league 21.9
Penalties0.22league 0.19
Home wins37%league 52%
Newcastle2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 Jan 25A · Southampton3–10
- W16 Dec 23H · Fulham3–00
Manchester City3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Jan 25A · Ipswich6–01
- L9 Nov 24A · Brighton1–23
- W31 Jan 24H · Burnley3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Newcastle11 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
61-75
4
7
76-90
Manchester City11 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 23 · conceded 7
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
