Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
16th · 43 pts · 37 played
WWWDL
1–1Full time
Bournemouth
6th · 56 pts · 37 played
WDWWD
Our take
Bournemouth were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bournemouth. Nottingham Forest had 7.1 days of rest, Bournemouth 4.9 and had to travel 253 km.
Away travel253 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nottingham Forest33%
Draw24%
Bournemouth44%
Nottingham Forest40%
Draw27%
Bournemouth32%
Nottingham Forest33%
Draw24%
Bournemouth44%
Nottingham Forest25%
Draw22%
Bournemouth52%
Nottingham Forest33%
Draw24%
Bournemouth43%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 146
Team strength
Nottingham ForestBournemouth
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
68
AttackIn forecast
83
74
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestBournemouth
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
62%
Scored inContext
81%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.46
ShotsContext
13.70
4.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.68
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
8.36
63%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.12
13.19
Shots allowedContext
12.57
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.24
4.68
BlocksContext
4.22
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.03
67%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
409
PassesContext
412
336
Accurate passesContext
329
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.89
FoulsContext
12.16
11.72
Fouls sufferedContext
10.46
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
2.35
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
14.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
28%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
68%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.78
14.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.70
BlocksContext
4.70
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
79%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
403
PassesContext
427
336
Accurate passesContext
343
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.20
FoulsContext
12.20
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km186 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bournemouth
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel253 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May | 4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 19 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 253 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 186 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90 | 90.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
4Morato
31N. Milenković
23Jair
10M. Gibbs-White
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
21O. Hutchinson
11C. Wood
19Igor Jesus
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
23J. Hill
15A. Smith
12T. Adams
27A. Tóth
16M. Tavernier
22E. Kroupi
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bournemouth+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.06points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-7
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.22
Bournemouth · Away
1.39points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-7-5
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HD 4–4 A |
| Newcastle | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Sunderland | W 5–0 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Burnley | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Fulham | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Manchester City | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A | W 3–2 HL 2–4 A |
| Wolves | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Leeds | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Brentford | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| West Ham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Everton | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 43 of 108 · 1.19 per game | 53 of 108 · 1.47 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Nottingham Forest wins3 draws6 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game0.89 – 2.11
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 26 Oct 2025Bournemouth2–0Nottingham Forest
- 25 Jan 2025Bournemouth5–0Nottingham Forest
- 17 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Bournemouth
- 4 Feb 2024Bournemouth1–1Nottingham Forest
- 23 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest2–3Bournemouth
- 21 Jan 2023Bournemouth1–1Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.62 | 2.97 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 57% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 65% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 19% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Nottingham Forest | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.20 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.19 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 10.05 | 11.17 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 28/37 | 77% 27/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 22/37 | 69% 24/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 16/37 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.62 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 4.38 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 16/37 | 65% 24/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 8/37 | 46% 17/37 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.70 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.40 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 146 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.79
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 21.6
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins41%league 43%
Nottingham Forest8 with this referee
Record2-2-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L31 Aug 25H · West Ham0–30
- L25 Jan 25A · Bournemouth0–53
- W26 Dec 24H · Tottenham1–03
- W25 Oct 24A · Leicester3–13
- D13 Apr 24H · Wolves2–22
Bournemouth9 with this referee
Record4-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D3 Mar 26H · Brentford0–02
- W25 Jan 25H · Nottingham Forest5–02
- W22 Dec 24A · Manchester United3–03
- W6 Dec 23A · Crystal Palace2–03
- L4 Nov 23A · Manchester City1–61
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest37 games · scored 47 · conceded 50
8
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
12
31-45
10
8
46-60
6
3
61-75
13
15
76-90
Bournemouth37 games · scored 57 · conceded 53
8
5
0-15
8
7
16-30
10
10
31-45
5
7
46-60
10
9
61-75
16
15
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
