Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
17th · 27 pts · 26 played
DWDLD
0–1Full time
Liverpool
6th · 42 pts · 26 played
DLWLW
Our take
Liverpool were slight favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Liverpool 10.7 and had to travel 132 km.
Away travel132 kmRest days2.8 · 10.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nottingham Forest30%
Draw23%
Liverpool47%
Nottingham Forest28%
Draw26%
Liverpool46%
Nottingham Forest30%
Draw24%
Liverpool46%
Nottingham Forest23%
Draw22%
Liverpool55%
Nottingham Forest30%
Draw25%
Liverpool45%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 200
Team strength
Nottingham ForestLiverpool
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
68
AttackIn forecast
85
74
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestLiverpool
0.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
54%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
12.81
ShotsContext
15.77
4.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
31%
On target shareContext
28%
7.85
Shots in the boxContext
10.12
63%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.64
12.62
Shots allowedContext
10.81
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.96
4.61
BlocksContext
3.28
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
63%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
418
PassesContext
546
346
Accurate passesContext
470
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.81
FoulsContext
9.50
11.96
Fouls sufferedContext
10.46
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.10
ShotsContext
18.90
6.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
32%
On target shareContext
28%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
58%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.20
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.44
BlocksContext
3.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
70%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
421
PassesContext
543
347
Accurate passesContext
473
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.09
10.70
FoulsContext
9.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km5,226 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Liverpool
Rest10.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel132 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb | 10.7Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 132 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,226 km | 392 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
27S. Ortega(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
8D. Szoboszlai
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
17C. Jones
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Liverpool+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.38
Liverpool · Away
1.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-5
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Leeds | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Brentford | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| West Ham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Everton | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Brighton | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Burnley | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 24 of 75 · 0.96 per game | 42 of 75 · 1.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Nottingham Forest wins1 draws3 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.14
Over 2.543%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 22 Nov 2025Liverpool0–3Nottingham Forest
- 14 Jan 2025Nottingham Forest1–1Liverpool
- 14 Sep 2024Liverpool0–1Nottingham Forest
- 2 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest0–1Liverpool
- 29 Oct 2023Liverpool3–0Nottingham Forest
- 22 Apr 2023Liverpool3–2Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.96 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 2.92 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 62% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 62% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 15% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Nottingham Forest | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.62 | 6.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 10.56 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 21/26 | 80% 20/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 18/26 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 13/26 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.46 | 1.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 3.74 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 10/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 6/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 8.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 13.11 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 3.74
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls21.0league 21.4
Penalties0.25league 0.21
Home wins35%league 42%
Nottingham Forest13 with this referee
Record2-2-9
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L22 Dec 25A · Fulham0–14
- D24 Aug 25A · Crystal Palace1–13
- L25 May 25H · Chelsea0–12
- W19 Jan 25H · Southampton3–20
- L10 Nov 24H · Newcastle1–31
Liverpool29 with this referee
Record12-14-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2
Pens for · against5 · 1
Reds1
- D8 Jan 26A · Arsenal0–02
- D6 Dec 25A · Leeds3–33
- L4 Oct 25A · Chelsea1–22
- W15 Aug 25H · Bournemouth4–21
- D11 May 25H · Arsenal2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest26 games · scored 25 · conceded 38
5
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
12
76-90
Liverpool26 games · scored 41 · conceded 35
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
10
5
31-45
9
5
46-60
5
6
61-75
14
12
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
