Nottingham Forest
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nottingham Forest
17th · 18 pts · 17 played
LWLWL
1–2Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 37 pts · 17 played
WWWWW
Nottingham Forest21.7%fair odds 4.60
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.29
Manchester City55.0%fair odds 1.82
Expected goals1.13 – 1.91total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nottingham Forest ↓ · Manchester City → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nottingham Forest goals, columns Manchester City goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.21
- 1–29.9%10.15
- 0–28.7%11.51
- 0–18.5%11.71
- 1–36.3%15.91
- 2–15.8%17.11
- 2–25.6%17.89
- 0–35.5%18.05
- 0–05.3%18.88
- 1–04.8%20.65
Winning margin
2.6%
Nottingham Forest by 3+
fair 39.03
6.0%
Nottingham Forest by 2
fair 16.78
13.2%
Nottingham Forest by 1
fair 7.56
23.3%
Draw
fair 4.29
22.7%
Manchester City by 1
fair 4.41
16.9%
Manchester City by 2
fair 5.90
15.3%
Manchester City by 3+
fair 6.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Nottingham Forest goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Manchester City goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest win | 21.7% | 22.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Manchester City win | 55.0% | 53.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 52.6% | +6.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 54.0% | +4.3 pp |
| Expected goals Nottingham Forest | 1.13 | 1.05 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Manchester City | 1.91 | 1.74 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nottingham Forest win21.7%4.60
- Draw23.3%4.29
- Manchester City win55.0%1.82
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw45.0%2.22
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or Manchester City76.7%1.30
- Double chance Manchester City or draw78.3%1.28
- Draw no bet Nottingham Forest28.4%3.53
- Draw no bet Manchester City71.6%1.40
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.3%1.23
- Over 2.558.7%1.70
- Over 3.536.3%2.75
- Over 4.519.3%5.19
- Under 1.518.7%5.35
- Under 2.541.3%2.42
- Under 3.563.7%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes58.4%1.71
- No41.6%2.40
- Yes and over 2.547.5%2.10
- Nottingham Forest win and yes12.3%8.14
- Draw and yes18.0%5.56
- Manchester City win and yes28.1%3.56
Team goals
- Nottingham Forest over 0.567.8%1.47
- Nottingham Forest over 1.531.4%3.19
- Nottingham Forest over 2.510.7%9.38
- Manchester City over 0.585.2%1.17
- Manchester City over 1.557.0%1.75
- Manchester City over 2.530.0%3.34
- Nottingham Forest clean sheet14.8%6.77
- Manchester City clean sheet32.2%3.11
- Nottingham Forest win to nil9.5%10.56
- Manchester City win to nil26.9%3.72
Handicap
- Nottingham Forest −1.58.5%11.73
- Nottingham Forest −2.52.6%39.03
- Manchester City +1.591.5%1.09
- Manchester City +2.597.4%1.03
- Manchester City −1.532.3%3.10
- Nottingham Forest +1.567.7%1.48
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored171
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.586
Over 2.5 called right56.1%
BTTS called right52.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 64 | 45.1% | 51.6% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 54.3% | 54.3% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 63.9% | 73.7% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 73.5% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 141 of 171 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5829 | 0.5697 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.0% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 56.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 141 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 171 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.