Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
17th · 18 pts · 17 played
LWLWL
1–2Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 37 pts · 17 played
WWWWW
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 67). Nottingham Forest had 4.7 days of rest, Manchester City 6.9 and had to travel 93 km.
Away travel93 kmRest days4.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nottingham Forest22%
Draw23%
Manchester City55%
Nottingham Forest22%
Draw25%
Manchester City52%
Nottingham Forest22%
Draw24%
Manchester City54%
Nottingham Forest16%
Draw21%
Manchester City63%
Nottingham Forest22%
Draw25%
Manchester City53%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 133
Team strength
Nottingham ForestManchester City
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
68
AttackIn forecast
92
74
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestManchester City
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.41
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
47%
Scored inContext
88%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
12.29
ShotsContext
14.12
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.53
32%
On target shareContext
39%
8.06
Shots in the boxContext
10.53
66%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
1.92
OffsidesContext
1.64
12.71
Shots allowedContext
9.53
4.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
4.40
BlocksContext
2.94
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.35
64%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
443
PassesContext
562
369
Accurate passesContext
495
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.12
11.18
FoulsContext
9.76
12.06
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.65
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
2.10
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
60%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.00
ShotsContext
14.70
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
36%
On target shareContext
46%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
66%
Box shareContext
77%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.30
Shots allowedContext
10.20
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
4.50
BlocksContext
3.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
69%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
442
PassesContext
546
370
Accurate passesContext
481
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.30
FoulsContext
10.80
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel93 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Dec | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 93 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
13John Victor(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
37N. Savona
16N. Domínguez
8E. Anderson
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
4T. Reijnders
14Nico González
20Bernardo Silva
47P. Foden
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester City+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.63
Manchester City · Away
1.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | W 5–4 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Everton | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Brighton | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Liverpool | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Leeds | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Burnley | D 1–1 A | W 5–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| West Ham | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game | 37 of 48 · 2.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Nottingham Forest wins1 draws4 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets17% · 67%
- 8 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest1–0Manchester City
- 4 Dec 2024Manchester City3–0Nottingham Forest
- 28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest0–2Manchester City
- 23 Sep 2023Manchester City2–0Nottingham Forest
- 18 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Manchester City
- 31 Aug 2022Manchester City6–0Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 71% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 41% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 12% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.35 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 9.81 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 13/17 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 10/17 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 3.36 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 9/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 5/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 9.67 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 133 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.72
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls22.9league 21.7
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins47%league 49%
Nottingham Forest7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D22 Sep 24A · Brighton2–26
- L23 Dec 23H · Bournemouth2–32
- D18 Sep 23H · Burnley1–12
- L4 Apr 23A · Leeds1–24
- W5 Feb 23H · Leeds1–04
Manchester City8 with this referee
Record7-1-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W27 Sep 25H · Burnley5–11
- D7 Dec 24A · Crystal Palace2–22
- W21 Oct 23H · Brighton2–14
- W19 Aug 23H · Newcastle1–01
- W8 Apr 23A · Southampton4–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest17 games · scored 17 · conceded 26
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
8
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
10
76-90
Manchester City17 games · scored 41 · conceded 16
5
0-15
5
2
16-30
11
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
10
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
