Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
17th · 15 pts · 15 played
WWLWL
3–0Full time
Tottenham
11th · 22 pts · 15 played
DLLDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 65). Nottingham Forest come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Tottenham 8 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d4 · 2
Nottingham Forest36%
Draw26%
Tottenham39%
Nottingham Forest39%
Draw27%
Tottenham34%
Nottingham Forest36%
Draw26%
Tottenham38%
Nottingham Forest29%
Draw25%
Tottenham46%
Nottingham Forest39%
Draw27%
Tottenham34%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 70
Team strength
Nottingham ForestTottenham
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
68
AttackIn forecast
56
74
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestTottenham
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
47%
Scored inContext
87%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.13
ShotsContext
9.80
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.21
67%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
1.73
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.27
Shots allowedContext
11.67
4.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.31
BlocksContext
2.64
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
64%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
444
PassesContext
427
369
Accurate passesContext
355
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.47
FoulsContext
11.53
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.53
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.80
ShotsContext
10.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
43%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
65%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
21%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.56
10.70
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.38
BlocksContext
3.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
65%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
430
PassesContext
403
354
Accurate passesContext
329
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.90
FoulsContext
11.30
13.89
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km1,288 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Tottenham
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel175 km796 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 43 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,288 km | 796 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 4 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
13John Victor(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
37N. Savona
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
24D. Spence
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
23Pedro Porro
14A. Gray
30R. Bentancur
39R. Kolo Muani
7X. Simons
20M. Kudus
9Richarlison
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Tottenham+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.86
Tottenham · Away
2.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | L 0–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Wolves | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Brighton | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Leeds | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Burnley | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–3 A | L 1–4 A |
| West Ham | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| Brentford | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 11 of 36 · 0.92 per game | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws4 Tottenham wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 21 Apr 2025Tottenham1–2Nottingham Forest
- 26 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest1–0Tottenham
- 7 Apr 2024Tottenham3–1Nottingham Forest
- 15 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest0–2Tottenham
- 11 Mar 2023Tottenham3–1Nottingham Forest
- 28 Aug 2022Nottingham Forest0–2Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.87 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 53% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.53 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.87 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.86 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 87% 13/15 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.53 | |
| Match total | 3.47 | 4.06 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 4/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.25 | 11.10 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.60 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.64
Red cards0.07league 0.12
Cards 5+33%league 39%
Fouls20.5league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins39%league 49%
Nottingham Forest7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Oct 25A · Bournemouth0–21
- W18 May 25A · West Ham2–13
- W14 Dec 24H · Aston Villa2–10
- W24 Aug 24A · Southampton1–03
- L24 Feb 24A · Aston Villa2–42
Tottenham3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Nov 25H · Manchester United2–25
- L22 Dec 24H · Liverpool3–61
- W10 Feb 24H · Brighton2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest15 games · scored 14 · conceded 25
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
10
76-90
Tottenham15 games · scored 25 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
5
7
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
