Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
17th · 26 pts · 25 played
WDWDL
0–0Full time
Wolves
20th · 8 pts · 25 played
DDLLL
Our take
Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Wolves. Nottingham Forest had 5 days of rest, Wolves 4.2 and had to travel 77 km.
Away travel77 kmRest days5 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 2
Nottingham Forest58%
Draw23%
Wolves19%
Nottingham Forest59%
Draw23%
Wolves18%
Nottingham Forest57%
Draw23%
Wolves20%
Nottingham Forest50%
Draw25%
Wolves25%
Nottingham Forest57%
Draw24%
Wolves20%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeTim Robinson
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 124
Team strength
Nottingham ForestWolves
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
68
AttackIn forecast
41
74
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestWolves
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.64
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.92
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
56%
Scored inContext
48%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
11.92
ShotsContext
9.40
3.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
32%
On target shareContext
34%
7.52
Shots in the boxContext
6.17
63%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.06
OffsidesContext
2.06
12.84
Shots allowedContext
13.08
4.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
4.61
BlocksContext
4.48
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
62%
Save rateContext
61%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
416
PassesContext
382
342
Accurate passesContext
307
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.76
FoulsContext
13.80
11.92
Fouls sufferedContext
10.28
1.48
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.50
ShotsContext
12.00
5.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
59%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.10
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.80
BlocksContext
3.29
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
56%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
426
PassesContext
399
351
Accurate passesContext
330
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.40
FoulsContext
12.10
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km195 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Wolves
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel77 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Feb | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 77 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 195 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
27S. Ortega(G)
3N. Williams
4Morato
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
20L. Lucca
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
15Y. Mosquera
3Hugo Bueno
8João Gomes
47A. Gomes
21R. Gomes
36Mateus Mané
9A. Armstrong
14T. Arokodare
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Wolves-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.50
Wolves · Away
0.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-9
- Scored
- 0.42
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| West Ham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Everton | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Brighton | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Burnley | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 23 of 72 · 0.96 per game | 8 of 72 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Nottingham Forest wins4 draws1 Wolves wins
Goals per game1.29 – 0.86
Over 2.529%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 3 Dec 2025Wolves0–1Nottingham Forest
- 6 Jan 2025Wolves0–3Nottingham Forest
- 31 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Wolves
- 13 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest2–2Wolves
- 9 Dec 2023Wolves1–1Nottingham Forest
- 1 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.92 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.56 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 44% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 44% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 52% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Nottingham Forest | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.52 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.84 | 6.26 | |
| Match total | 10.36 | 9.83 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 20/25 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 17/25 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 13/25 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.52 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.72 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 10/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 6/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 10.00 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tim Robinson 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 3.74
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.6league 21.3
Penalties0.15league 0.22
Home wins48%league 43%
Nottingham Forest7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W3 Dec 25A · Wolves1–02
- W21 Oct 24H · Crystal Palace1–02
- W30 Dec 23H · Manchester United2–12
- W2 Sep 23A · Chelsea1–04
- W6 Apr 22H · Coventry2–03
Wolves6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L3 Dec 25H · Nottingham Forest0–12
- L21 Sep 24A · Aston Villa1–36
- L2 Mar 24A · Newcastle0–31
- W4 Feb 24A · Chelsea4–22
- W11 Nov 23H · Tottenham2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest25 games · scored 25 · conceded 38
5
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
12
76-90
Wolves25 games · scored 16 · conceded 48
2
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
12
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
12
61-75
2
9
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
