La Liga Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 29 · 16:00 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Elche 18th · 7 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Elche—%
Draw—%
Atletico Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Elche)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Elche and Atletico Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ElcheAtletico Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
44 Current StrengthIn forecast 81
39 AttackIn forecast 82
51 DefenceIn forecast 87
56 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—
Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ElcheAtletico Madrid
1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.11
1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89
1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.72
1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
67% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 44%
11.00 ShotsContext 17.56
4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.44
38% On target shareContext 37%
6.44 Shots in the boxContext 10.33
55% Box shareContext 60%
11% ConversionContext 12%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.89 Shots allowedContext 9.56
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
3.63 BlocksContext 2.89
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22
60% Save rateContext 71%
51% PossessionIn forecast 60%
478 PassesContext 590
408 Accurate passesContext 521
85% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.64 Team ratingContext 7.05
13.44 FoulsContext 12.11
13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56
2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
70% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.20 ShotsContext 16.10
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
38% On target shareContext 37%
6.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
55% Box shareContext 58%
12% ConversionContext 12%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.20
14.40 Shots allowedContext 10.20
5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.44 BlocksContext 2.90
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
64% Save rateContext 71%
50% PossessionIn forecast 60%
463 PassesContext 588
391 Accurate passesContext 517
84% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.65 Team ratingContext 7.04
14.10 FoulsContext 11.30
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Villarreal0–00.7 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Celta Vigo0–01.5 xPts
  • W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts
Atletico Madrid
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Elche Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Nov3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways275 km25 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 32 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Villarreal (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda 24A. Osorio
Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Elche Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.75
Atletico Madrid · Away 2.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentElcheAtletico Madrid
Villarreal D 0–0 A D 2–2 H
Espanyol W 3–1 A W 1–0 A
Real Madrid L 2–3 H W 2–1 H
Athletic Club D 1–1 A L 0–3 A
Real Sociedad L 2–3 H W 3–0 A
Points5 of 15 · 1.00 per game10 of 15 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Elche wins1 draws5 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.525% Both scored38% Clean sheets13% · 50%
  • 22 Apr 2026Elche3–2Atletico Madrid
  • 23 Aug 2025Atletico Madrid1–1Elche
  • 14 May 2023Elche1–0Atletico Madrid
  • 29 Dec 2022Atletico Madrid2–0Elche
  • 11 May 2022Elche0–2Atletico Madrid
  • 22 Aug 2021Atletico Madrid1–0Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ElcheAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.222.11
Conceded per game 1.890.89
Match goals 3.113.00
Over 1.5 78%89%
Over 2.5 56%78%
Over 3.5 56%33%
Both teams scored 67%44%
Clean sheets 22%44%
Failed to score 33%11%
Games99
ElcheAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.202.00
Conceded per game 1.801.00
Match goals 3.003.00
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 50%30%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ElcheAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.565.57
Corners conceded4.673.57
Match total9.239.149.91
Over 8.533% 3/943% 3/7
Over 9.533% 3/943% 3/7
Over 10.533% 3/943% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.442.33
Opponent cards2.001.89
Match total4.444.224.73
Over 3.567% 6/967% 6/9
Over 4.556% 5/944% 4/9
ElcheAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.205.00
Corners conceded4.404.25
Match total8.609.259.91
Over 8.530% 3/1050% 4/8
Over 9.530% 3/1050% 4/8
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 4/8
Cards
Cards2.602.20
Opponent cards2.201.70
Match total4.803.904.73
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 31-45
1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Valencia Osasuna Nov 2916:00 Malaga Athletic Club Nov 2916:00 Celta Vigo Villarreal Nov 2916:00 Levante Racing Santander Nov 2916:00 Espanyol Getafe Nov 2916:00 Real Madrid Alaves Nov 2916:00 Real Betis Rayo Vallecano Nov 2916:00 Deportivo La Coruna Barcelona Nov 2916:00 Real Sociedad Sevilla Nov 2916:00 Elche Atletico Madrid Nov 2916:00