UEFA Champions League Matchday 8 Wed, Jan 27 · 20:00 NSK Olimpiiskyi, Kiev
Shakhtar Donetsk 11th · 4 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,863 kmRest days7 · 3.2Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Shakhtar Donetsk—%
Draw—%
Real Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Kiev)

Forecast from 12 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Shakhtar Donetsk and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Shakhtar DonetskReal Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
57 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
54 AttackIn forecast 89
62 DefenceIn forecast 85
— Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Shakhtar DonetskReal Madrid
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.00 ShotsContext 16.00
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00
30% On target shareContext 50%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
63% Box shareContext 78%
20% ConversionContext 19%
— OffsidesContext 1.50
11.50 Shots allowedContext 17.50
2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
3.50 BlocksContext 4.00
1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
60% Save rateContext 79%
50% PossessionIn forecast 41%
418 PassesContext 405
358 Accurate passesContext 345
86% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.63 Team ratingContext 6.89
15.50 FoulsContext 10.00
15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
3.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.66 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
100% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.88 ShotsContext 16.90
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
31% On target shareContext 43%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
62% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 16%
2.80 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.38 Shots allowedContext 14.20
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
2.38 BlocksContext 3.80
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
59% Save rateContext 75%
56% PossessionIn forecast 50%
455 PassesContext 501
400 Accurate passesContext 446
88% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.78 Team ratingContext 7.13
11.50 FoulsContext 8.90
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Shakhtar Donetsk
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,547 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 66 · 4 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W14 OctH · AEK Athens FC3–11.6 xPts
  • D10 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–10.6 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel2,863 km831 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Shakhtar Donetsk Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Jan3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,863 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,547 km831 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 11 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one—3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Shakhtar Donetsk Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs AEK Athens FC (H) 3–1, 14 Oct
31D. Riznyk(G)
13Pedro Henrique 22M. Matviienko 5V. Bondar 17Vinícius Tobias
27O. Ocheretko
11Newerton 6Marlon Gomes 10Pedrinho 30Alisson Santana
9Kauã Elias
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Shakhtar Donetsk Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Shakhtar Donetsk · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
1.00
Real Madrid · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Shakhtar Donetsk wins1 draws3 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.50 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%
  • 11 Oct 2022Shakhtar Donetsk1–1Real Madrid
  • 5 Oct 2022Real Madrid2–1Shakhtar Donetsk
  • 3 Nov 2021Real Madrid2–1Shakhtar Donetsk
  • 19 Oct 2021Shakhtar Donetsk0–5Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Shakhtar DonetskReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 2.003.00
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 3.005.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 100%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Shakhtar DonetskReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 2.002.70
Conceded per game 1.001.20
Match goals 3.003.90
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 100%70%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games210

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Shakhtar DonetskReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.50
Corners conceded2.508.00
Match total6.5014.509.71
Over 8.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Over 9.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Cards
Cards3.501.00
Opponent cards3.503.00
Match total7.004.003.80
Over 3.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 4.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Shakhtar DonetskReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won5.296.30
Corners conceded3.005.00
Match total8.2911.309.71
Over 8.529% 2/770% 7/10
Over 9.529% 2/770% 7/10
Over 10.529% 2/770% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.502.20
Opponent cards2.402.50
Match total4.904.703.80
Over 3.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 4.560% 6/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Shakhtar Donetsk2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Real Madrid2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
2 46-60
61-75
3 1 76-90
Shakhtar Donetsk10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 16-30
4 1 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 2 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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