La Liga Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Valencia 19th · 6 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel302 kmRest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Rayo Vallecano—%
Draw—%
Valencia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 7 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Rayo Vallecano and Valencia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Rayo VallecanoValencia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 51
61 AttackIn forecast 39
60 DefenceIn forecast 52
66 Form indexContext 36
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—
Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo VallecanoValencia
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.37
100% Scored inContext 44%
0% Clean sheetsContext 33%
14.38 ShotsContext 11.11
4.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
32% On target shareContext 24%
7.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
55% Box shareContext 58%
10% ConversionContext 6%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.11
15.88 Shots allowedContext 15.11
5.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11
4.00 BlocksContext 4.00
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
61% Save rateContext 70%
51% PossessionIn forecast 46%
406 PassesContext 422
334 Accurate passesContext 346
82% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.70
12.88 FoulsContext 10.89
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.44
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
90% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.00 ShotsContext 11.90
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33
32% On target shareContext 25%
6.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
52% Box shareContext 59%
10% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.70 Shots allowedContext 14.70
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.30 BlocksContext 3.78
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
67% Save rateContext 70%
52% PossessionIn forecast 44%
403 PassesContext 400
331 Accurate passesContext 326
82% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.73
13.20 FoulsContext 10.90
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts
Valencia
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel302 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 36 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Athletic Club0–01.4 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Racing Santander2–21.2 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.6 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Alaves1–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Sevilla0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rayo Vallecano Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14La Liga 2026-2027, 8 Nov14.8La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Getafe (A) 1–1, 19 Oct
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa 15Mujaid Sadick 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss 8Unai López
18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
Valencia Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Athletic Club (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà 12J. de Haas 5César Tárrega 24Pablo Maffeo
2G. Rodríguez 18Pepelu
7A. Danjuma 8Javi Guerra 19Dani Raba
9Hugo Duro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rayo Vallecano Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Valencia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Valencia · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentRayo VallecanoValencia
Racing Santander W 3–2 H D 2–2 A
Barcelona L 2–5 A L 0–5 H
Alaves D 1–1 H W 1–0 A
Sevilla L 1–2 A L 0–1 A
Points4 of 12 · 1.00 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Rayo Vallecano wins7 draws1 Valencia wins
Goals per game0.90 – 0.80 Over 2.510% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 20%
  • 14 May 2026Valencia1–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 1 Dec 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Valencia
  • 19 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Valencia
  • 7 Dec 2024Valencia0–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 12 May 2024Valencia0–0Rayo Vallecano
  • 19 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano0–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Rayo VallecanoValenciaForecast
Scored per game 1.500.67
Conceded per game 2.131.67
Match goals 3.632.33
Over 1.5 100%44%
Over 2.5 63%44%
Over 3.5 38%44%
Both teams scored 100%33%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 0%56%
Games89
Rayo VallecanoValenciaForecast
Scored per game 1.600.90
Conceded per game 1.801.60
Match goals 3.402.50
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 30%50%
Both teams scored 90%40%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Rayo VallecanoValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.634.00
Corners conceded6.384.44
Match total12.018.449.91
Over 8.563% 5/856% 5/9
Over 9.563% 5/856% 5/9
Over 10.563% 5/822% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.752.22
Opponent cards2.502.22
Match total5.254.444.73
Over 3.563% 5/867% 6/9
Over 4.563% 5/856% 5/9
Rayo VallecanoValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.104.30
Corners conceded6.504.80
Match total11.609.109.91
Over 8.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 9.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 10.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards3.102.20
Opponent cards2.602.20
Match total5.704.404.73
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Rayo Vallecano8 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
4 76-90
Valencia9 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 6 76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 5 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Villarreal Nov 2216:00 Athletic Club Espanyol Nov 2216:00 Sevilla Real Betis Nov 2216:00 Levante Elche Nov 2216:00 Real Madrid Celta Vigo Nov 2216:00 Alaves Deportivo La Coruna Nov 2216:00 Getafe Atletico Madrid Nov 2216:00 Osasuna Malaga Nov 2216:00 Rayo Vallecano Valencia Nov 2216:00 Racing Santander Real Sociedad Nov 2216:00