Valencia vs Real Madrid

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 7 · 20:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 19th · 6 pts · 9 played LWLDD

VS— Compare

Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played WWLWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid are clear favourites.

Real Madrid are the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Valencia have 6.1 days of rest, Real Madrid 3.1 and have to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days6.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 3

Valencia16%

Draw21%

Real Madrid63%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.13

Valencia18%

Draw23%

Real Madrid59%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.90

Valencia16%

Draw21%

Real Madrid63%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.13

Valencia12%

Draw18%

Real Madrid70%

Expected goals 0.88 – 2.39

Valencia16%

Draw20%

Real Madrid64%

Expected goals 1.06 – 2.27

Over 2.5 60% Both score 56% Likeliest score 0–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Valencia

Real Madrid

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

39 AttackIn forecast 89

52 DefenceIn forecast 85

36 Form indexContext 91

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack−29%

Defense risk+54%

Real Madrid

Attack+11%

Defense risk−11%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Valencia

Real Madrid

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 2.41

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

44% Scored inContext 89%

33% Clean sheetsContext 22%

11.11 ShotsContext 17.56

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.22

24% On target shareContext 41%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.33

58% Box shareContext 69%

6% ConversionContext 15%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.13

15.11 Shots allowedContext 12.78

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

4.00 BlocksContext 3.44

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

70% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 53%

422 PassesContext 528

346 Accurate passesContext 476

82% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.17

10.89 FoulsContext 8.44

11.44 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11

2.22 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.22

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 2.32

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.90 ShotsContext 16.90

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30

25% On target shareContext 43%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.20

59% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.70 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.78 BlocksContext 3.80

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

70% Save rateContext 75%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

400 PassesContext 501

326 Accurate passesContext 446

82% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.13

10.90 FoulsContext 8.90

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia LWLDD

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km275 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 36 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

D17 OctH · Athletic Club0–01.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Racing Santander2–21.2 xPts
L20 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.6 xPts
W15 SepA · Alaves1–00.9 xPts
L11 SepA · Sevilla0–11.1 xPts

Real Madrid WLWWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel302 km6,426 km in 14d

Schedule load39%Moderate

Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 39
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1La Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov	3.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	275 km	6,426 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	2 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	14.8	14.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Athletic Club (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 12J. de Haas 5César Tárrega 24Pablo Maffeo

2G. Rodríguez 18Pepelu

7A. Danjuma 8Javi Guerra 19Dani Raba

9Hugo Duro

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct

1T. Courtois(G)

17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde

14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler

25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick

10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia No reported absences

Real Madrid No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Real Madrid+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 0.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 0.40
Conceded: 1.80

Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Real Madrid
Real Sociedad	L 2–3 H	W 4–1 H
Sevilla	L 0–1 A	W 4–1 H
Real Betis	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Points	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Valencia wins1 draws7 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game0.90 – 2.40 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%

8 Feb 2026Valencia0–2Real Madrid
1 Nov 2025Real Madrid4–0Valencia
5 Apr 2025Real Madrid1–2Valencia
3 Jan 2025Valencia1–2Real Madrid
2 Mar 2024Valencia2–2Real Madrid
11 Nov 2023Real Madrid5–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	2.56
Conceded per game	1.67	1.00
Match goals	2.33	3.56	3.11
Over 1.5	44%	78%
Over 2.5	44%	78%	60%
Over 3.5	44%	56%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	56%
Clean sheets	33%	22%
Failed to score	56%	11%
Games	9	9

	Valencia	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	2.70
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.50	3.90	3.11
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.25
Corners conceded	4.44	4.25
Match total	8.44	10.50	9.91
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.22	2.33
Opponent cards	2.22	2.67
Match total	4.44	5.00	4.73
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9

	Valencia	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	6.30
Corners conceded	4.80	5.00
Match total	9.10	11.30	9.91
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.40	4.70	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.