Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 8 · 15:15 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played WLWWW

VS— Compare

Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played WLWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rayo Vallecano. Real Sociedad have 2.9 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 8 and have to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days2.9 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Real Sociedad41%

Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano33%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.38

Real Sociedad42%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

Real Sociedad41%

Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano33%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.38

Real Sociedad33%

Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano41%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.54

Real Sociedad42%

Draw25%

Rayo Vallecano34%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.47

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

62 AttackIn forecast 61

48 DefenceIn forecast 60

81 Form indexContext 66

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack+4%

Defense risk0%

Rayo Vallecano

Attack+10%

Defense risk−5%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano

1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

67% Scored inContext 100%

11% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.11 ShotsContext 14.38

5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.63

39% On target shareContext 32%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.13

56% Box shareContext 55%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.00

16.56 Shots allowedContext 15.88

6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.38

4.00 BlocksContext 4.00

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

73% Save rateContext 61%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

467 PassesContext 406

399 Accurate passesContext 334

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.11 FoulsContext 12.88

9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 9 and 8 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.80 ShotsContext 14.00

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

38% On target shareContext 32%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

55% Box shareContext 52%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.80 Shots allowedContext 15.70

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

3.90 BlocksContext 4.30

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

70% Save rateContext 67%

50% PossessionIn forecast 52%

481 PassesContext 403

410 Accurate passesContext 331

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.77

12.40 FoulsContext 13.20

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad LWWDW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km154 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Rayo Vallecano WLWDD

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov	8La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	154 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 6	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Getafe (A) 1–1, 19 Oct

25E. Audero(G)

17Adrià Pedrosa 15Mujaid Sadick 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu

6P. Ciss 8Unai López

18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 7Isi Palazón

19Jorge de Frutos

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad No reported absences

Rayo Vallecano No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

Rayo Vallecano · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 2.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
Real Madrid	L 1–4 A	L 1–4 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Real Sociedad wins5 draws2 Rayo Vallecano wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.20 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%

26 Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano3–3Real Sociedad
5 Oct 2025Real Sociedad0–1Rayo Vallecano
16 Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Sociedad
18 Aug 2024Real Sociedad1–2Rayo Vallecano
27 Jan 2024Real Sociedad0–0Rayo Vallecano
29 Oct 2023Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.89	1.50
Conceded per game	1.89	2.13
Match goals	3.78	3.63	2.92
Over 1.5	78%	100%
Over 2.5	78%	63%	56%
Over 3.5	56%	38%
Both teams scored	67%	100%	59%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	9	8

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.60
Conceded per game	1.90	1.80
Match goals	3.80	3.40	2.92
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	90%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.63
Corners conceded	4.89	6.38
Match total	11.89	12.01	9.91
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.75
Opponent cards	2.56	2.50
Match total	4.89	5.25	4.73
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	78% 7/9	63% 5/8

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.10
Corners conceded	4.70	6.50
Match total	11.70	11.60	9.91
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	3.10
Opponent cards	2.40	2.60
Match total	4.60	5.70	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.