RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 6.1 days of rest, Union Berlin 6.2 and had to travel 150 km.
Away travel150 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
RB Leipzig74%
Draw16%
Union Berlin11%
RB Leipzig66%
Draw20%
Union Berlin13%
RB Leipzig75%
Draw15%
Union Berlin10%
RB Leipzig66%
Draw19%
Union Berlin15%
RB Leipzig71%
Draw17%
Union Berlin12%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 107
Team strength
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
76
AttackIn forecast
42
53
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigUnion Berlin
1.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
90%
Scored inContext
73%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.37
ShotsContext
12.10
5.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
38%
On target shareContext
30%
11.13
Shots in the boxContext
9.14
72%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.28
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.43
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.27
3.38
BlocksContext
3.92
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
486
PassesContext
319
411
Accurate passesContext
229
85%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.33
FoulsContext
12.27
10.03
Fouls sufferedContext
9.73
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.20
ShotsContext
10.80
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
42%
On target shareContext
36%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
76%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.70
BlocksContext
4.86
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
69%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
460
PassesContext
313
386
Accurate passesContext
221
84%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.67
10.20
FoulsContext
11.30
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel150 km971 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 150 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 586 km | 971 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
35M. Finkgräfe
5E. Bitshiabu
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
24X. Schlager
20F. Ouédraogo
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
15T. Rothe
19J. Haberer
8R. Khedira
13A. Schäfer
28C. Trimmel
23A. Ilić
7O. Burke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Union Berlin+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-3
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.20
Union Berlin · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-9
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.87
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 6–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 59 of 87 · 2.03 per game | 29 of 87 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 RB Leipzig wins2 draws5 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.22
Over 2.567%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 22%
- 12 Dec 2025Union Berlin3–1RB Leipzig
- 1 Feb 2025Union Berlin0–0RB Leipzig
- 14 Sep 2024RB Leipzig0–0Union Berlin
- 4 Feb 2024RB Leipzig2–0Union Berlin
- 3 Sep 2023Union Berlin0–3RB Leipzig
- 11 Feb 2023RB Leipzig1–2Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.97 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.87 | 3.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 57% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 27% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| RB Leipzig | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.80 | 3.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.74 | 4.66 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.45 | |
| Match total | 10.18 | 9.11 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 18/27 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 16/27 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 24% 7/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.24 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 12/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 7/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| RB Leipzig | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.70 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 107 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.74
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls20.5league 20.3
Penalties0.19league 0.37
Home wins41%league 44%
RB Leipzig13 with this referee
Record8-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W20 Mar 26H · 1899 Hoffenheim5–01
- W1 Nov 25H · VfB Stuttgart3–11
- W13 Sep 25A · FSV Mainz 051–00
- D8 Mar 25A · SC Freiburg0–03
- W26 Oct 24H · SC Freiburg3–13
Union Berlin10 with this referee
Record3-1-6
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- W15 Mar 26A · SC Freiburg1–01
- W21 Sep 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt4–34
- L15 Feb 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–20
- D14 Sep 24A · RB Leipzig0–03
- L20 Apr 24H · Bayern München1–50
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig30 games · scored 59 · conceded 37
7
0-15
9
5
16-30
12
8
31-45
12
8
46-60
10
5
61-75
9
11
76-90
Union Berlin30 games · scored 34 · conceded 52
2
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
17
31-45
5
10
46-60
5
4
61-75
12
14
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
