RB Leipzig
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RB Leipzig
6th · 39 pts · 21 played
LWDLW
2–2Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
15th · 19 pts · 21 played
WDLLL
RB Leipzig63.6%fair odds 1.57
Draw20.2%fair odds 4.94
VfL Wolfsburg16.2%fair odds 6.19
Expected goals2.23 – 1.05total 3.27
Likeliest score2–19.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RB Leipzig ↓ · VfL Wolfsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RB Leipzig goals, columns VfL Wolfsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%10.17
- 2–09.4%10.64
- 1–19.3%10.75
- 1–08.0%12.54
- 3–17.3%13.71
- 3–07.0%14.34
- 2–25.1%19.46
- 1–24.6%21.66
- 0–04.3%23.47
- 4–14.1%24.63
Winning margin
22.0%
RB Leipzig by 3+
fair 4.55
19.2%
RB Leipzig by 2
fair 5.21
22.5%
RB Leipzig by 1
fair 4.45
20.2%
Draw
fair 4.94
10.3%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 9.71
4.2%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 23.63
1.6%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 61.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
RB Leipzig goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 63.6% | 61.4% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 20.2% | 21.8% | -1.6 pp |
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 16.2% | 16.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 57.8% | +5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.3% | 54.6% | +3.8 pp |
| Expected goals RB Leipzig | 2.23 | 2.03 | +0.19 |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 1.05 | 0.97 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RB Leipzig win63.6%1.57
- Draw20.2%4.94
- VfL Wolfsburg win16.2%6.19
- Double chance RB Leipzig or draw83.8%1.19
- Double chance RB Leipzig or VfL Wolfsburg79.8%1.25
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw36.4%2.75
- Draw no bet RB Leipzig79.7%1.25
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg20.3%4.94
Goals
- Over 0.595.7%1.04
- Over 1.584.3%1.19
- Over 2.563.5%1.57
- Over 3.541.3%2.42
- Over 4.523.2%4.30
- Under 1.515.7%6.36
- Under 2.536.5%2.74
- Under 3.558.7%1.70
Both teams to score
- Yes58.3%1.71
- No41.7%2.40
- Yes and over 2.549.0%2.04
- RB Leipzig win and yes32.7%3.06
- Draw and yes16.0%6.26
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes9.6%10.39
Team goals
- RB Leipzig over 0.589.2%1.12
- RB Leipzig over 1.565.2%1.53
- RB Leipzig over 2.538.4%2.60
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.564.9%1.54
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.528.1%3.56
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.58.9%11.25
- RB Leipzig clean sheet35.1%2.85
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet10.8%9.27
- RB Leipzig win to nil30.9%3.24
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil6.5%15.31
Handicap
- RB Leipzig −1.541.2%2.43
- RB Leipzig −2.522.0%4.55
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.558.8%1.70
- VfL Wolfsburg +2.578.0%1.28
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.55.9%17.09
- RB Leipzig +1.594.1%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored196
Favourite won58.2%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.551
Over 2.5 called right62.8%
BTTS called right56.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.2% | 42.3% |
| 40–50% | 60 | 45.1% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 55 | 55.2% | 61.8% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 64.8% | 76.7% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.3% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 85.8% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 176 of 196 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5424 | 0.5382 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 59.7% | 60.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 176 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 196 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.