RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
6th · 39 pts · 21 played
LWDLW
2–2Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
15th · 19 pts · 21 played
WDLLL
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 40). Absences weigh more on VfL Wolfsburg. RB Leipzig had 7.1 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 8.1 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days7.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
RB Leipzig64%
Draw20%
VfL Wolfsburg16%
RB Leipzig60%
Draw23%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
RB Leipzig62%
Draw21%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
RB Leipzig56%
Draw23%
VfL Wolfsburg22%
RB Leipzig61%
Draw22%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 62
Team strength
RB LeipzigVfL Wolfsburg
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
76
AttackIn forecast
50
53
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigVfL Wolfsburg
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
90%
Scored inContext
81%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
15.52
ShotsContext
11.43
5.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
35%
On target shareContext
35%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.24
70%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.81
Shots allowedContext
14.52
3.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.05
3.70
BlocksContext
4.35
2.72
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
66%
Save rateContext
61%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
494
PassesContext
410
420
Accurate passesContext
329
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.05
FoulsContext
10.76
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.38
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.20
ShotsContext
10.40
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
34%
On target shareContext
36%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
73%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.29
9.70
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.78
BlocksContext
4.80
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
62%
Save rateContext
55%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
537
PassesContext
428
461
Accurate passesContext
342
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.80
8.70
FoulsContext
11.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km762 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel163 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 762 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
35M. Finkgräfe
13N. Seiwald
4V. Orbán
39B. Henrichs
14C. Baumgartner
24X. Schlager
7A. Nusa
10B. Gruda
49Y. Diomande
11C. Harder
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
6J. Belocian
15M. Jenz
3D. Vavro
26S. Kumbedi
27M. Arnold
24C. Eriksen
7K. Shiogai
10L. Majer
11A. Daghim
9M. Amoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-3
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 1.30
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-6
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | L 1–8 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 3–4 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 1–3 H |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 6–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 36 of 60 · 1.80 per game | 19 of 60 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 RB Leipzig wins0 draws3 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.78 – 1.11
Over 2.556%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets56% · 11%
- 27 Sep 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–1RB Leipzig
- 11 Apr 2025VfL Wolfsburg2–3RB Leipzig
- 30 Nov 2024RB Leipzig1–5VfL Wolfsburg
- 13 Apr 2024RB Leipzig3–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 25 Nov 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–1RB Leipzig
- 18 Feb 2023VfL Wolfsburg0–3RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.24 | 3.48 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 67% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 76% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 19% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| RB Leipzig | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.90 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.47 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.79 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 11.00 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 13/19 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 11/19 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 3.67 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 9/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 4/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| RB Leipzig | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 10.78 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.74
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 20.7
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins55%league 46%
RB Leipzig6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L26 Apr 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–42
- W15 Mar 25H · Borussia Dortmund2–03
- W31 Aug 24A · Bayer Leverkusen3–21
- L20 Jan 24H · Bayer Leverkusen2–32
- W11 Mar 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–01
VfL Wolfsburg6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D9 May 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–20
- L22 Dec 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–33
- L10 Feb 24A · Union Berlin0–12
- W26 Aug 23A · 1.FC Köln2–15
- L3 Sep 22H · 1.FC Köln2–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig21 games · scored 40 · conceded 28
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
9
6
31-45
10
5
46-60
8
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg21 games · scored 29 · conceded 44
8
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
2
6
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
8
61-75
4
12
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
6
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 23
5
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
