Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rio Ave. Rio Ave had 5.9 days of rest, Estrela 7.1 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days5.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rio Ave45%
Draw29%
Estrela25%
Rio Ave47%
Draw26%
Estrela27%
Rio Ave45%
Draw29%
Estrela25%
Rio Ave39%
Draw30%
Estrela31%
Rio Ave46%
Draw28%
Estrela25%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 15
Team strength
Rio Ave
Estrela
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
18
AttackIn forecast
24
21
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveEstrela
0.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
56%
Scored inContext
56%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
9.12
ShotsContext
10.40
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
38%
On target shareContext
34%
5.77
Shots in the boxContext
5.32
60%
Box shareContext
50%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.19
15.48
Shots allowedContext
13.12
5.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
4.16
BlocksContext
3.75
3.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
66%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
379
PassesContext
349
315
Accurate passesContext
282
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.00
FoulsContext
14.08
15.12
Fouls sufferedContext
14.76
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.48
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
30%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.20
ShotsContext
8.50
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
32%
On target shareContext
40%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
4.10
53%
Box shareContext
50%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.30
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.40
BlocksContext
4.11
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
61%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
397
PassesContext
349
332
Accurate passesContext
283
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.60
FoulsContext
14.90
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km217 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Mar | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 217 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
32J. Brabec
17M. Vrousai
5A. Ntoi
44T. Nikitscher
18D. Špikić
80O. Pohlmann
7Diogo Bezerra
11Jalen Blesa
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
24B. Langa
83Otávio
30Luan Patrick
21M. Scholze
19Paulo Moreira
6Kevin Höög Jansson
10I. Stoica
11Jovane Cabral
99A. Marcus
9Rodrigo Pinho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.67
Estrela · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Arouca | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Nacional | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | W 5–3 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–4 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| AVS | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Estoril | L 0–4 H | L 0–5 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 72 · 0.88 per game | 25 of 72 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Rio Ave wins2 draws1 Estrela wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 25 Oct 2025Estrela1–2Rio Ave
- 5 May 2025Rio Ave2–0Estrela
- 23 Dec 2024Estrela1–0Rio Ave
- 14 Apr 2024Estrela2–2Rio Ave
- 2 Dec 2023Rio Ave1–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.96 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 2.84 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 52% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 44% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Rio Ave | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.54 | 5.24 | |
| Match total | 10.21 | 9.10 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 17/24 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 14/24 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 11/24 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.56 | 2.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.64 | |
| Match total | 4.96 | 5.28 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 16/25 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 14/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Rio Ave | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.12 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.90 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.20league 4.85
Red cards0.13league 0.27
Cards 5+80%league 59%
Fouls26.4league 27.0
Penalties0.47league 0.44
Home wins53%league 40%
Rio Ave1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D31 Aug 25H · SC Braga2–23
Estrela2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W7 Feb 26H · Santa Clara1–04
- D9 Nov 25H · Nacional1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave25 games · scored 24 · conceded 44
2
3
0-15
4
7
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
8
46-60
6
9
61-75
5
9
76-90
Estrela24 games · scored 23 · conceded 40
2
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
10
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 5 · conceded 20
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
2
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
7
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
