Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rio Ave45.5%fair odds 2.20
Draw29.4%fair odds 3.41
Estrela25.2%fair odds 3.97
Expected goals1.33 – 0.92total 2.25
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estrela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rio Ave ↓ · Estrela → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rio Ave goals, columns Estrela goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.36
- 1–013.4%7.48
- 0–011.3%8.87
- 2–09.3%10.72
- 0–19.0%11.07
- 2–18.6%11.68
- 1–25.9%16.89
- 0–24.5%22.42
- 3–04.1%24.22
- 2–23.9%25.44
Winning margin
7.9%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 12.73
13.7%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 7.27
23.9%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 4.19
29.4%
Draw
fair 3.41
16.3%
Estrela by 1
fair 6.14
6.6%
Estrela by 2
fair 15.22
2.3%
Estrela by 3+
fair 43.20
Goal distribution
Total goals
11%0
22%1
27%2
20%3
11%4
8%5+
Rio Ave goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Estrela goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 45.5% | 46.4% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.3% | +1.1 pp |
| Estrela win | 25.2% | 25.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 38.9% | 42.7% | -3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.8% | 47.8% | -2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 1.33 | 1.41 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Estrela | 0.92 | 0.97 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rio Ave win45.5%2.20
- Draw29.4%3.41
- Estrela win25.2%3.97
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw74.8%1.34
- Double chance Rio Ave or Estrela70.6%1.42
- Double chance Estrela or draw54.5%1.83
- Draw no bet Rio Ave64.4%1.55
- Draw no bet Estrela35.6%2.81
Goals
- Over 0.588.7%1.13
- Over 1.566.3%1.51
- Over 2.538.9%2.57
- Over 3.519.0%5.27
- Over 4.57.8%12.90
- Under 1.533.7%2.97
- Under 2.561.1%1.64
- Under 3.581.0%1.23
Both teams to score
- Yes44.8%2.23
- No55.2%1.81
- Yes and over 2.531.2%3.20
- Rio Ave win and yes16.8%5.95
- Draw and yes18.1%5.53
- Estrela win and yes9.9%10.07
Team goals
- Rio Ave over 0.573.5%1.36
- Rio Ave over 1.538.3%2.61
- Rio Ave over 2.514.9%6.70
- Estrela over 0.560.1%1.66
- Estrela over 1.523.4%4.27
- Estrela over 2.56.6%15.19
- Rio Ave clean sheet39.9%2.50
- Estrela clean sheet26.5%3.77
- Rio Ave win to nil28.7%3.49
- Estrela win to nil15.2%6.56
Handicap
- Rio Ave −1.521.6%4.63
- Rio Ave −2.57.9%12.73
- Estrela +1.578.4%1.28
- Estrela +2.592.1%1.09
- Estrela −1.58.9%11.25
- Rio Ave +1.591.1%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored230
Favourite won58.7%
Avg chance given to result44.1%
1X2 Brier0.537
Over 2.5 called right58.3%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 44 | 37.7% | 43.2% |
| 40–50% | 76 | 44.5% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 54.6% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 65.2% | 83.9% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 75.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 230 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5161 | 0.5035 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Favourite won | 63.3% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓AVS 0–1 Santa Clara29·31·40
- ✗Nacional 0–1 Estoril38·28·34
- ✓Arouca 1–2 Benfica16·23·61
- ✗GIL Vicente 2–2 Alverca59·24·17
- ✗Guimaraes 1–2 Famalicao41·28·31
- ✗Tondela 0–1 Rio Ave44·30·26
- ✗Santa Clara 2–0 Guimaraes36·28·36
- ✗Benfica 2–2 FC Porto46·29·25
- ✗Estrela 2–2 GIL Vicente22·26·51
- ✗Estoril 0–0 Casa Pia54·25·21
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 230 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.