Santa Clara vs Arouca – 21 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 21 · 20:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 13th · 15 pts · 14 played LLDWL

0–0Full time

Arouca 16th · 12 pts · 14 played LLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Santa Clara had 6.1 days of rest, Arouca 7 and had to travel 1,537 km.

Away travel1,537 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Santa Clara45%

Draw28%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.07

Santa Clara46%

Draw26%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Santa Clara45%

Draw28%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.07

Santa Clara38%

Draw28%

Arouca33%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.20

Santa Clara46%

Draw26%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 3

Team strength

Santa Clara

Arouca

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

29 AttackIn forecast 28

53 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Arouca

0.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.07

1.07 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.64

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.64

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.87

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

64% Scored inContext 57%

29% Clean sheetsContext 7%

10.93 ShotsContext 9.07

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.85

32% On target shareContext 29%

6.79 Shots in the boxContext 5.69

61% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 12%

2.18 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.50 Shots allowedContext 14.14

3.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

2.11 BlocksContext 3.85

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.79

75% Save rateContext 53%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

366 PassesContext 383

296 Accurate passesContext 315

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.53

13.71 FoulsContext 14.29

14.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71

3.07 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.21

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 0.67

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.60 ShotsContext 9.00

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

36% On target shareContext 27%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.56

60% Box shareContext 56%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.80

10.40 Shots allowedContext 13.70

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

2.43 BlocksContext 3.78

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

74% Save rateContext 56%

45% PossessionIn forecast 48%

355 PassesContext 371

283 Accurate passesContext 302

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.52

13.60 FoulsContext 15.00

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

3.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,066 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arouca

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,537 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,537 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,066 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Gabriel Batista(G)

32MT 94Henrique Silva 13Luís Rocha 23Sidney Lima

35Serginho 6Adriano 8Pedro Ferreira

10Gabriel Silva 29Wendel 11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

58N. Mantl(G)

3José Fontán 4M. Rocha 5B. Popović 28Tiago Esgaio

89Pedro Santos 22E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 19A. Trezza 11Miguel Puche

23D. Nandin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 1.43points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.86

Arouca · Away 0.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Arouca
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	L 0–4 H
Casa Pia	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Rio Ave	D 1–1 A	D 3–3 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	L 0–6 A
AVS	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
Guimaraes	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Alverca	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Benfica	D 1–1 A	L 0–5 A
Estoril	W 1–0 A	L 3–4 A
Estrela	D 0–0 H	L 1–3 A
Moreirense	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Famalicao	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 H
Points	15 of 36 · 1.25 per game	9 of 36 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Santa Clara wins0 draws3 Arouca wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.00 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

26 Apr 2025Santa Clara2–0Arouca
15 Dec 2024Arouca1–0Santa Clara
11 Feb 2023Arouca1–0Santa Clara
20 Aug 2022Santa Clara1–2Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.79	1.07
Conceded per game	1.07	2.64
Match goals	1.86	3.71	2.52
Over 1.5	57%	93%
Over 2.5	36%	64%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	57%
Both teams scored	43%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	29%	7%
Failed to score	36%	43%
Games	14	14

	Santa Clara	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.80
Conceded per game	1.10	2.60
Match goals	2.10	3.40	2.52
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	3.85
Corners conceded	5.20	5.54
Match total	9.30	9.39	9.24
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	54% 7/13
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	46% 6/13
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	38% 5/13
Cards
Cards	3.29	2.93
Opponent cards	3.21	2.29
Match total	6.50	5.22	5.51
Over 3.5	86% 12/14	79% 11/14
Over 4.5	71% 10/14	64% 9/14

	Santa Clara	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	4.33
Corners conceded	5.63	6.44
Match total	9.51	10.77	9.24
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	3.70	3.10
Opponent cards	3.10	2.50
Match total	6.80	5.60	5.51
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 5.17

Red cards0.67league 0.31

Cards 5+33%league 63%

Fouls21.7league 27.4

Penalties0.33league 0.46

Home wins33%league 37%

Santa Clara

No previous matches with this referee.

Arouca1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D4 May 25H · Casa Pia0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.