Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 21 · 20:30
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Santa Clara45.3%fair odds 2.21
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.63
Arouca27.1%fair odds 3.69
Expected goals1.45 – 1.07total 2.52
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Arouca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Santa Clara ↓ · Arouca → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Santa Clara goals, columns Arouca goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.62
- 1–011.0%9.08
- 2–19.1%11.03
- 0–08.7%11.51
- 2–08.5%11.78
- 0–17.9%12.63
- 1–26.7%15.01
- 2–24.8%20.65
- 0–24.6%21.83
- 3–14.4%22.76
Winning margin
8.7%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 11.46
13.8%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 7.23
22.8%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 4.40
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.63
16.5%
Arouca by 1
fair 6.05
7.5%
Arouca by 2
fair 13.40
3.1%
Arouca by 3+
fair 32.20
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
14%4
11%5+
Santa Clara goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Arouca goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 45.3% | 46.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.4% | +1.2 pp |
| Arouca win | 27.1% | 27.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.2% | 50.8% | -4.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.0% | 54.5% | -3.5 pp |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 1.45 | 1.57 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Arouca | 1.07 | 1.14 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Santa Clara win45.3%2.21
- Draw27.6%3.63
- Arouca win27.1%3.69
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw72.9%1.37
- Double chance Santa Clara or Arouca72.4%1.38
- Double chance Arouca or draw54.7%1.83
- Draw no bet Santa Clara62.6%1.60
- Draw no bet Arouca37.4%2.67
Goals
- Over 0.591.3%1.10
- Over 1.572.4%1.38
- Over 2.546.2%2.16
- Over 3.524.7%4.05
- Over 4.511.2%8.94
- Under 1.527.6%3.62
- Under 2.553.8%1.86
- Under 3.575.3%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes51.0%1.96
- No49.0%2.04
- Yes and over 2.537.8%2.64
- Santa Clara win and yes19.6%5.09
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- Arouca win and yes12.4%8.04
Team goals
- Santa Clara over 0.576.6%1.30
- Santa Clara over 1.542.7%2.34
- Santa Clara over 2.518.0%5.56
- Arouca over 0.565.6%1.52
- Arouca over 1.528.9%3.46
- Arouca over 2.59.3%10.72
- Santa Clara clean sheet34.4%2.91
- Arouca clean sheet23.4%4.28
- Santa Clara win to nil25.7%3.90
- Arouca win to nil14.7%6.81
Handicap
- Santa Clara −1.522.6%4.43
- Santa Clara −2.58.7%11.46
- Arouca +1.577.4%1.29
- Arouca +2.591.3%1.10
- Arouca −1.510.6%9.46
- Santa Clara +1.589.4%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored131
Favourite won57.3%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.551
Over 2.5 called right61.1%
BTTS called right55.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 23 | 37.8% | 34.8% |
| 40–50% | 48 | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.1% | 59.3% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 66.3% | 86.7% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 75.4% | 73.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 102 of 131 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5498 | 0.5295 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.2% | 45.4% |
| Favourite won | 57.8% | 57.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 102 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 131 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.