SC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SC Braga. SC Braga had 7 days of rest, Sporting CP 7.9 and had to travel 320 km.
Away travel320 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
SC Braga33%
Draw28%
Sporting CP39%
SC Braga28%
Draw27%
Sporting CP45%
SC Braga33%
Draw28%
Sporting CP39%
SC Braga26%
Draw28%
Sporting CP46%
SC Braga33%
Draw29%
Sporting CP39%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Braga)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 59
Team strength
SC Braga
Sporting CP
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
85
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
42
AttackIn forecast
75
59
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC BragaSporting CP
2.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.58
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.65
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
88%
Scored inContext
100%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
54%
12.71
ShotsContext
17.71
5.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
42%
On target shareContext
38%
8.91
Shots in the boxContext
12.04
67%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.94
OffsidesContext
1.94
8.29
Shots allowedContext
7.83
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.95
2.48
BlocksContext
2.52
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
73%
Save rateContext
83%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
592
PassesContext
529
518
Accurate passesContext
464
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.25
FoulsContext
12.38
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
13.46
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
90%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
13.50
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
43%
On target shareContext
34%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
72%
Box shareContext
70%
21%
ConversionContext
16%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.50
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.60
BlocksContext
4.71
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
71%
Save rateContext
84%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
553
PassesContext
502
479
Accurate passesContext
438
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.10
FoulsContext
11.60
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Braga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,479 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sporting CP
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel320 km608 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Braga |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 320 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,479 km | 608 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
15Paulo Oliveira
14G. Lagerbielke
50D. Rodrigues
8João Moutinho
27F. Grillitsch
2Víctor Gómez
10R. Zalazar
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Braga · Home
2.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-2
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 0.82
Sporting CP · Away
2.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-0
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Braga | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| AVS | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H | W 6–0 H |
| Alverca | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Estrela | D 3–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| Benfica | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estoril | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Arouca | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 44 of 69 · 1.91 per game | 60 of 69 · 2.61 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 SC Braga wins4 draws3 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game1.14 – 2.86
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 5 Oct 2025Sporting CP1–1SC Braga
- 7 Apr 2025Sporting CP1–1SC Braga
- 10 Nov 2024SC Braga2–4Sporting CP
- 11 Feb 2024Sporting CP5–0SC Braga
- 3 Sep 2023SC Braga1–1Sporting CP
- 1 Feb 2023Sporting CP5–0SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Braga | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.08 | 2.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 3.08 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 67% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 54% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| SC Braga | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Braga | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 2.76 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.57 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 8/20 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 6/20 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 5.30 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 17/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 12/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| SC Braga | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.13 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.26 | 10.56 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.40 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 4.84
Red cards0.29league 0.26
Cards 5+46%league 59%
Fouls25.4league 26.9
Penalties0.22league 0.44
Home wins42%league 42%
SC Braga5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W8 Feb 26H · Rio Ave3–01
- W1 Dec 25A · Arouca4–00
- W17 Aug 25A · Alverca3–01
- D17 May 25H · Benfica1–14
- W5 Jan 23A · Santa Clara4–01
Sporting CP5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- W23 Dec 25A · Guimaraes4–15
- W27 Apr 25A · Boavista5–04
- W15 Mar 25H · Famalicao3–15
- D15 Feb 25H · Arouca2–23
- W5 Oct 24H · Casa Pia2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Braga24 games · scored 50 · conceded 23
9
2
0-15
12
6
16-30
9
6
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
10
3
76-90
Sporting CP24 games · scored 62 · conceded 12
5
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
14
31-45
10
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
17
4
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
4
0-15
6
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 21 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
