SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
8th · 30 pts · 22 played
DWLWL
2–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
14th · 22 pts · 22 played
DLDDL
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Borussia Mönchengladbach. SC Freiburg had 8 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 8 and had to travel 369 km.
Away travel369 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
SC Freiburg50%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach24%
SC Freiburg54%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach21%
SC Freiburg50%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach24%
SC Freiburg42%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach31%
SC Freiburg49%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach24%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 117
Team strength
SC FreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
63
AttackIn forecast
34
73
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
73%
Scored inContext
55%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
12.32
ShotsContext
11.05
4.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
33%
On target shareContext
37%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
67%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.24
13.36
Shots allowedContext
14.41
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.45
4.53
BlocksContext
3.32
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.82
66%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
401
PassesContext
425
326
Accurate passesContext
352
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.32
FoulsContext
10.82
11.77
Fouls sufferedContext
10.41
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.36
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
10.30
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
33%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
70%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.86
14.70
Shots allowedContext
14.20
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
5.38
BlocksContext
2.50
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
77%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
351
PassesContext
433
278
Accurate passesContext
353
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.00
FoulsContext
10.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km318 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel369 km396 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 369 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 318 km | 396 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
14K. Takai
26L. Ullrich
38A. Bolin
6Y. Engelhardt
16P. Sander
29J. Scally
15H. Tabaković
9F. Honorat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
2.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-1
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 1.10
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–5 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | W 4–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–6 A | L 0–3 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H |
| Points | 29 of 63 · 1.38 per game | 21 of 63 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 SC Freiburg wins5 draws0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game2.22 – 0.89
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets56% · 33%
- 5 Oct 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Freiburg
- 12 Apr 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2SC Freiburg
- 30 Nov 2024SC Freiburg3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 30 Mar 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3SC Freiburg
- 4 Nov 2023SC Freiburg3–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 4 Mar 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 3.09 | 2.82 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 55% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 36% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 45% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.61 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.15 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 1.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.59 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 3.46 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 12/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 9/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 7.80 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.70 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 117 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.78
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+50%league 39%
Fouls23.3league 20.7
Penalties0.26league 0.36
Home wins43%league 46%
SC Freiburg12 with this referee
Record3-4-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W13 Sep 25H · VfB Stuttgart3–11
- D4 May 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–21
- L25 Jan 25H · Bayern München1–24
- W14 Sep 24H · VfL Bochum2–10
- D11 May 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–11
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L20 Apr 25A · Borussia Dortmund2–32
- W19 Oct 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–23
- D21 May 23A · Bayer Leverkusen2–23
- L22 Oct 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–33
- W6 Aug 22H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg22 games · scored 32 · conceded 36
7
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
7
14
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
6
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach22 games · scored 25 · conceded 37
3
6
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
8
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
7
61-75
6
8
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
3
8
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
