Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sun, Oct 11 · 16:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 3rd · 10 pts · 4 played
2–1Full time
FC Schalke 04 13th · 5 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

SC Freiburg were slight favourites.

SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Freiburg. FC Schalke 04 were without T. Becker and D. Ljubičić. SC Freiburg had 22.1 days of rest, FC Schalke 04 21 and had to travel 394 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel394 kmRest days22.1 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
SC Freiburg59%
Draw21%
FC Schalke 0420%
Expected goals 1.99 – 1.07
SC Freiburg54%
Draw24%
FC Schalke 0422%
Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03
SC Freiburg58%
Draw22%
FC Schalke 0420%
Expected goals 1.93 – 1.07
SC Freiburg51%
Draw23%
FC Schalke 0426%
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.20
SC Freiburg58%
Draw21%
FC Schalke 0420%
Expected goals 2.01 – 1.10
Over 2.5 59% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
13°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 5 km/h
  • Humidity 76%
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.26
  • Matches 62

Team strength

SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04
64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
63 AttackIn forecast 33
73 DefenceIn forecast 50
81 Form indexContext 52
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Schalke 04

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.16
+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.71
100% Scored inContext 25%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
19.00 ShotsContext 11.75
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25
34% On target shareContext 36%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
60% Box shareContext 70%
16% ConversionContext 6%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.33
9.50 Shots allowedContext 17.50
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.75
3.50 BlocksContext 5.50
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.75
67% Save rateContext 85%
53% PossessionIn forecast 36%
464 PassesContext 321
394 Accurate passesContext 218
85% Pass accuracyContext 68%
7.31 Team ratingContext 7.11
10.25 FoulsContext 7.75
15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.60
1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35
+0.79 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
90% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.60 ShotsContext 12.60
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
36% On target shareContext 37%
8.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
63% Box shareContext 73%
17% ConversionContext 11%
1.78 OffsidesContext 2.14
11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.10
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.60 BlocksContext 3.10
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
63% Save rateContext 76%
53% PossessionIn forecast 46%
434 PassesContext 380
364 Accurate passesContext 284
84% Pass accuracyContext 75%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.99
11.10 FoulsContext 8.10
12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts
  • W30 AugH · Werder Bremen4–12.0 xPts
FC Schalke 04
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel394 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 52 · 5 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
  • D20 SepH · SV Elversberg0–01.7 xPts
  • W11 SepA · Union Berlin3–11.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bayern München0–00.4 xPts
  • L30 AugA · FC Augsburg0–31.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Freiburg FC Schalke 04
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match22.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km394 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one6.95.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 14Y. Suzuki 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
FC Schalke 04 Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1L. Karius(G)
39M. Wöber 25N. Katić 4H. Kuruçay
8R. Gosens 13Satoshi Tanaka 23S. El-Faouzi 17A. Gantenbein
19K. Karaman 9M. Sylla
20C. Adamu
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Freiburg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −2.5% of weighted minutes
  • DEF B. Ogbus Rotation 6.64
  • DEF B. Yılmaz Depth 7.09
FC Schalke 04 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −7.9% · Defence line −14.2% of weighted minutes
  • DEF T. Becker Starter 6.77
  • MID D. Ljubičić Starter 6.81
Total impact vs full squads
  • SC Freiburg+1.2 pp
  • Draw-0.5 pp
  • FC Schalke 04-0.7 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored
4.50
Conceded
0.50
FC Schalke 04 · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 SC Freiburg wins0 draws0 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%
  • 23 Apr 2023SC Freiburg4–0FC Schalke 04
  • 30 Oct 2022FC Schalke 040–2SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 3.000.75
Conceded per game 0.751.00
Match goals 3.751.75 3.05
Over 1.5 75%50%
Over 2.5 75%50% 59%
Over 3.5 75%25%
Both teams scored 50%25% 57%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%75%
Games44
SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 2.300.75
Conceded per game 1.401.00
Match goals 3.701.75 3.05
Over 1.5 90%50%
Over 2.5 80%50% 59%
Over 3.5 60%25%
Both teams scored 70%25% 57%
Clean sheets 20%50%
Failed to score 10%75%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won5.254.00
Corners conceded3.756.33
Match total9.0010.3310.84
Over 8.550% 2/467% 2/3
Over 9.525% 1/433% 1/3
Over 10.525% 1/433% 1/3
Cards
Cards1.751.25
Opponent cards2.502.00
Match total4.253.253.53
Over 3.575% 3/450% 2/4
Over 4.550% 2/40% 0/4
SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won3.303.78
Corners conceded4.405.00
Match total7.708.7810.84
Over 8.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Over 9.520% 2/1033% 3/9
Over 10.520% 2/1011% 1/9
Cards
Cards1.401.50
Opponent cards2.401.70
Match total3.803.203.53
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 62 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.26league 3.45
Red cards0.16league 0.09
Cards 5+48%league 18%
Fouls23.8league 22.5
Penalties0.26league 0.14
Home wins45%league 50%
SC Freiburg2 with this referee
Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D18 Jan 26A · FC Augsburg2–22
  • W12 Mar 22H · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
FC Schalke 043 with this referee
Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W17 Oct 25A · Hannover 963–02
  • L9 Aug 25A · 1. FC Kaiserslautern0–14
  • L23 Oct 22A · Hertha BSC1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

SC Freiburg4 games · scored 12 · conceded 3
1 0-15
4 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
3 1 76-90
FC Schalke 044 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
1 1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 3 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 14
3 0-15
9 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 3 76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
5 1 31-45
3 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Borussia Dortmund Werder Bremen 22 FSV Mainz 05 Bayer Leverkusen 34 1899 Hoffenheim Hamburger SV 23 FC Augsburg Bayern München 22 Union Berlin SV Elversberg 10 SC Paderborn 07 VfB Stuttgart 02 RB Leipzig Eintracht Frankfurt 60 1.FC Köln Borussia Mönchengladbach 21 SC Freiburg FC Schalke 04 21