SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg58.2%fair odds 1.72
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.44
FC Schalke 0419.3%fair odds 5.18
Expected goals1.99 – 1.07total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Schalke 04
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · FC Schalke 04 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns FC Schalke 04 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%9.49
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 2–09.3%10.73
- 1–08.8%11.30
- 3–16.6%15.20
- 3–06.2%16.21
- 1–25.3%18.75
- 2–25.3%18.88
- 0–05.3%19.04
- 0–14.5%22.20
Winning margin
17.3%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 5.78
17.9%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 5.58
23.0%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.35
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.44
12.1%
FC Schalke 04 by 1
fair 8.27
5.2%
FC Schalke 04 by 2
fair 19.38
2.1%
FC Schalke 04 by 3+
fair 48.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
SC Freiburg goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
FC Schalke 04 goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 58.2% | 57.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.3% | +0.2 pp |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 19.3% | 19.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 60.2% | -1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.1% | 58.3% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.99 | 2.01 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals FC Schalke 04 | 1.07 | 1.10 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win58.2%1.72
- Draw22.5%4.44
- FC Schalke 04 win19.3%5.18
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw80.7%1.24
- Double chance SC Freiburg or FC Schalke 0477.5%1.29
- Double chance FC Schalke 04 or draw41.8%2.39
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg75.1%1.33
- Draw no bet FC Schalke 0424.9%4.01
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.4%1.23
- Over 2.558.9%1.70
- Over 3.536.5%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.16
- Under 1.518.6%5.37
- Under 2.541.1%2.43
- Under 3.563.5%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes57.1%1.75
- No42.9%2.33
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
- SC Freiburg win and yes29.0%3.45
- Draw and yes17.3%5.79
- FC Schalke 04 win and yes10.8%9.22
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.586.3%1.16
- SC Freiburg over 1.559.0%1.69
- SC Freiburg over 2.532.0%3.13
- FC Schalke 04 over 0.565.6%1.52
- FC Schalke 04 over 1.528.9%3.46
- FC Schalke 04 over 2.59.3%10.76
- SC Freiburg clean sheet34.4%2.90
- FC Schalke 04 clean sheet13.7%7.29
- SC Freiburg win to nil29.2%3.43
- FC Schalke 04 win to nil8.5%11.82
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.535.2%2.84
- SC Freiburg −2.517.3%5.78
- FC Schalke 04 +1.564.8%1.54
- FC Schalke 04 +2.582.7%1.21
- FC Schalke 04 −1.57.2%13.86
- SC Freiburg +1.592.8%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.585
Over 2.5 called right77.3%
BTTS called right61.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.7% | 66.7% |
| 40–50% | 20 | 43.8% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 56.4% | 44.4% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 73.8% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 44 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5847 | 0.6010 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 54.5% | 54.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 44 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 8 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.