SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
9th · 20 pts · 15 played
LWLDW
2–1Full time
Hamburger SV
13th · 16 pts · 15 played
LWWLD
Our take
SC Freiburg were clear favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 34). SC Freiburg had 21 days of rest, Hamburger SV 21 and had to travel 636 km.
Away travel636 kmRest days21 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
SC Freiburg62%
Draw21%
Hamburger SV17%
SC Freiburg60%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV17%
SC Freiburg62%
Draw21%
Hamburger SV17%
SC Freiburg54%
Draw24%
Hamburger SV22%
SC Freiburg60%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV17%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 26
Team strength
SC FreiburgHamburger SV
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
63
AttackIn forecast
37
73
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgHamburger SV
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
60%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.87
ShotsContext
12.33
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.47
33%
On target shareContext
36%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
67%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.85
OffsidesContext
2.43
11.53
Shots allowedContext
13.67
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.69
BlocksContext
3.71
2.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
58%
Save rateContext
62%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
429
PassesContext
398
354
Accurate passesContext
329
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.07
FoulsContext
12.13
12.53
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.60
ShotsContext
12.60
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
35%
On target shareContext
37%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
65%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.14
BlocksContext
3.44
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
67%
Save rateContext
54%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
449
PassesContext
395
375
Accurate passesContext
322
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.00
FoulsContext
11.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel636 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 21Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 636 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
29P. Treu
9L. Höler
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
18B. Jatta
7Jean-Luc Dompe
19D. Downs
20Fábio Vieira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Hamburger SV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.29
Hamburger SV · Away
0.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-5
- Scored
- 0.43
- Conceded
- 2.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–6 A | L 0–5 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | L 1–4 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 20 of 42 · 1.43 per game | 16 of 42 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.73 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 53% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 53% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.26 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 4.54 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.70 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.88
Red cards0.27league 0.21
Cards 5+46%league 41%
Fouls20.5league 21.2
Penalties0.46league 0.32
Home wins38%league 44%
SC Freiburg2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W20 Sep 25A · Werder Bremen3–02
- L28 Sep 24H · FC St. Pauli0–33
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg15 games · scored 25 · conceded 26
5
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Hamburger SV15 games · scored 16 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
