Bundesliga Gameweek 16 Tue, Jan 12 · 19:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel636 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
SC Freiburg—%
Draw—%
Hamburger SV—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

Forecast from 28 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SC FreiburgHamburger SV
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 40
63 AttackIn forecast 37
73 DefenceIn forecast 43
78 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC FreiburgHamburger SV
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83
+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
100% Scored inContext 50%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
16.00 ShotsContext 11.00
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
33% On target shareContext 33%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.33
63% Box shareContext 56%
16% ConversionContext 9%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
9.17 Shots allowedContext 19.17
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
3.33 BlocksContext 5.33
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
64% Save rateContext 62%
53% PossessionIn forecast 40%
465 PassesContext 346
390 Accurate passesContext 270
84% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.54
9.50 FoulsContext 14.17
14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.11
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.88 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
13.50 ShotsContext 11.60
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
37% On target shareContext 35%
8.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.90
64% Box shareContext 59%
18% ConversionContext 11%
1.71 OffsidesContext 1.86
11.00 Shots allowedContext 16.40
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
3.80 BlocksContext 4.56
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
60% Save rateContext 64%
53% PossessionIn forecast 40%
445 PassesContext 348
373 Accurate passesContext 275
84% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.71
10.80 FoulsContext 12.40
13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km666 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
  • W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts
Hamburger SV
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel636 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
  • W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
  • L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Freiburg Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 9 Jan3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 9 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km636 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways666 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one3.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo
37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe
15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Freiburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
0.67
Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 SC Freiburg wins0 draws1 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 10 May 2026Hamburger SV3–2SC Freiburg
  • 10 Jan 2026SC Freiburg2–1Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SC FreiburgHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 2.501.00
Conceded per game 1.002.50
Match goals 3.503.50
Over 1.5 83%83%
Over 2.5 83%67%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games66
SC FreiburgHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 2.401.30
Conceded per game 1.402.10
Match goals 3.803.40
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 90%70%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC FreiburgHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.173.83
Corners conceded3.506.00
Match total8.679.8310.72
Over 8.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 9.517% 1/650% 3/6
Over 10.517% 1/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards1.831.33
Opponent cards1.832.17
Match total3.663.503.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/60% 0/6
SC FreiburgHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.103.60
Corners conceded4.006.40
Match total8.1010.0010.72
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.520% 2/1050% 5/10
Over 10.520% 2/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.401.50
Opponent cards2.202.60
Match total3.604.103.51
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
4 2 76-90
Hamburger SV6 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1 1 0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 61-75
3 4 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
8 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
2 1 0-15
5 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Bayer Leverkusen Jan 1219:30 SC Freiburg Hamburger SV Jan 1219:30 FSV Mainz 05 1899 Hoffenheim Jan 1219:30 FC Augsburg Borussia Mönchengladbach Jan 1219:30 RB Leipzig VfB Stuttgart Jan 1219:30 FC Schalke 04 Werder Bremen Jan 1219:30 Union Berlin SC Paderborn 07 Jan 1219:30 1.FC Köln Borussia Dortmund Jan 1219:30 SV Elversberg Eintracht Frankfurt Jan 1219:30