Sunderland vs Brighton – 14 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 30 Sat, Mar 14 · 15:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland 11th · 40 pts · 29 played LLLDW

0–1Full time

Brighton 14th · 37 pts · 29 played LLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Sunderland had 10.8 days of rest, Brighton 9.8 and had to travel 458 km.

Away travel458 kmRest days10.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Sunderland28%

Draw27%

Brighton45%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.48

Sunderland30%

Draw27%

Brighton43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

Sunderland29%

Draw28%

Brighton43%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.41

Sunderland22%

Draw26%

Brighton52%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.65

Sunderland28%

Draw28%

Brighton43%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.38

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Kirk

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 33

Team strength

Sunderland

Brighton

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

62 AttackIn forecast 87

59 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

Brighton

1.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.24

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

66% Scored inContext 76%

31% Clean sheetsContext 21%

9.48 ShotsContext 12.76

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

71% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.96 OffsidesContext 2.39

14.72 Shots allowedContext 12.14

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.72 BlocksContext 3.52

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.76

72% Save rateContext 71%

44% PossessionIn forecast 53%

369 PassesContext 472

291 Accurate passesContext 397

79% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.21 FoulsContext 12.10

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.34

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.48

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 11.20

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

34% On target shareContext 37%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

69% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.67

14.60 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

5.10 BlocksContext 3.63

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

57% Save rateContext 76%

47% PossessionIn forecast 53%

403 PassesContext 471

323 Accurate passesContext 390

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.20 FoulsContext 12.40

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km247 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest9.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel458 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar	9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	458 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	247 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

31M. Ellborg(G)

32T. Hume 15O. Alderete 5D. Ballard 6L. Geertruida

34G. Xhaka

7C. Talbi 27N. Sadiki 19M. Diarra 11C. Rigg

9B. Brobbey

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

30P. Groß 20J. Milner

11Y. Minteh 13J. Hinshelwood 25D. Gómez

18D. Welbeck

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland-1.1 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Brighton+1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 1.86points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 7-5-2
Scored: 1.57
Conceded: 0.93

Brighton · Away 0.93points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sunderland	Brighton
Leeds	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 3–0 H
Bournemouth	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Fulham	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Liverpool	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Arsenal	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Burnley	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
West Ham	L 1–3 AW 3–0 H	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Brentford	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 H
Manchester City	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Newcastle	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Everton	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 A
Wolves	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Manchester United	L 0–2 A	L 2–4 A
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Aston Villa	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H
Points	39 of 84 · 1.39 per game	36 of 84 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Sunderland wins1 draws0 Brighton wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

20 Dec 2025Brighton0–0Sunderland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.03	1.31
Conceded per game	1.17	1.24
Match goals	2.21	2.55	2.60
Over 1.5	72%	83%
Over 2.5	41%	45%	48%
Over 3.5	14%	17%
Both teams scored	45%	62%	53%
Clean sheets	31%	21%
Failed to score	34%	24%
Games	29	29

	Sunderland	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	0.90
Match goals	2.60	1.90	2.60
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	48%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.41	4.83
Corners conceded	5.14	4.66
Match total	8.55	9.49	9.98
Over 8.5	52% 15/29	55% 16/29
Over 9.5	45% 13/29	52% 15/29
Over 10.5	31% 9/29	41% 12/29
Cards
Cards	2.07	2.48
Opponent cards	1.79	2.03
Match total	3.86	4.51	3.93
Over 3.5	52% 15/29	72% 21/29
Over 4.5	41% 12/29	45% 13/29

	Sunderland	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.50
Corners conceded	5.78	5.00
Match total	8.78	9.50	9.98
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.40
Opponent cards	1.90	1.90
Match total	4.20	4.30	3.93
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Kirk 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.33league 3.79

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+45%league 40%

Fouls22.5league 21.6

Penalties0.15league 0.22

Home wins45%league 42%

Sunderland1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L2 Mar 24A · Norwich0–13

Brighton

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.