Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sunderland
10th · 30 pts · 21 played
DDDDL
2–1Full time
Crystal Palace
13th · 28 pts · 21 played
LLDLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. Sunderland had 9.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 9.8 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sunderland35%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace38%
Sunderland34%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace39%
Sunderland34%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace39%
Sunderland29%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace45%
Sunderland35%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace37%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 135
Team strength
SunderlandCrystal Palace
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
62
AttackIn forecast
64
59
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandCrystal Palace
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
62%
Scored inContext
62%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
9.62
ShotsContext
11.71
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
70%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.26
14.90
Shots allowedContext
11.62
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.15
4.43
BlocksContext
3.28
3.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
367
PassesContext
375
289
Accurate passesContext
289
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.86
FoulsContext
9.81
10.38
Fouls sufferedContext
9.14
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.65
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
13.40
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
30%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
66%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.20
15.70
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
4.80
BlocksContext
3.38
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
70%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
383
PassesContext
421
300
Accurate passesContext
337
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.90
FoulsContext
9.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
6.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,547 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel387 km796 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan | 9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,547 km | 796 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
14R. Mundle
28E. Le Fée
32T. Hume
9B. Brobbey
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
8J. Lerma
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
19W. Hughes
20A. Wharton
55J. Devenny
10Yeremy Pino
11B. Johnson
14J. Mateta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+1.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Crystal Palace-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-0
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.80
Crystal Palace · Away
1.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Tottenham | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Manchester City | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Brighton | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 29 of 60 · 1.45 per game | 27 of 60 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sunderland wins1 draws0 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 13 Sep 2025Crystal Palace0–0Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.05 | 2.14 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 43% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Sunderland | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.62 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 9.04 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.76 | 3.71 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Sunderland | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 8.70 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.20 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 135 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 3.71
Red cards0.10league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 21.3
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins46%league 45%
Sunderland4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W18 Oct 25H · Wolves2–00
- W16 Aug 25H · West Ham3–00
- D8 Feb 25H · Watford2–25
- L19 Jan 24H · Hull City0–12
Crystal Palace11 with this referee
Record3-3-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L30 Nov 25H · Manchester United1–23
- W22 Feb 25A · Fulham2–03
- D7 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–21
- L24 Aug 24H · West Ham0–21
- W30 Dec 23H · Brentford3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland21 games · scored 21 · conceded 22
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
7
4
76-90
Crystal Palace21 games · scored 22 · conceded 23
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
6
7
31-45
1
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
8
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
