Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Newcastle were slight favourites.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 46). Sunderland had 8 days of rest, Newcastle 8 and had to travel 17 km.
Away travel17 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sunderland23%
Draw24%
Newcastle53%
Sunderland23%
Draw25%
Newcastle52%
Sunderland23%
Draw24%
Newcastle53%
Sunderland18%
Draw22%
Newcastle60%
Sunderland24%
Draw25%
Newcastle51%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 111
Team strength
Sunderland
Newcastle
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
62
AttackIn forecast
61
59
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNewcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandNewcastle
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
67%
Scored inContext
80%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.60
ShotsContext
12.60
3.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.47
31%
On target shareContext
35%
7.31
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
70%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.92
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.27
Shots allowedContext
10.73
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
4.47
BlocksContext
3.77
3.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
77%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
368
PassesContext
443
291
Accurate passesContext
368
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.80
FoulsContext
10.71
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.73
1.87
Yellow cardsContext
1.07
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.30
ShotsContext
13.30
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
34%
On target shareContext
43%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
66%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
17.70
Shots allowedContext
13.10
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.90
BlocksContext
4.00
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
74%
Save rateContext
75%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
355
PassesContext
460
279
Accurate passesContext
390
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.10
FoulsContext
9.38
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km727 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Newcastle
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel17 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 17 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 727 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
7C. Talbi
28E. Le Fée
25B. Traoré
9B. Brobbey
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
32A. Ramsdale(G)
3L. Hall
33D. Burn
12M. Thiaw
21V. Livramento
67L. Miley
8S. Tonali
39Bruno Guimarães
10A. Gordon
27N. Woltemade
20A. Elanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Newcastle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Newcastle-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Newcastle · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Arsenal | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Brentford | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game | 20 of 36 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Sunderland | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 5.93 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 12.06 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.27 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 7/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Sunderland | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 13.10 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.60 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.64
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 39%
Fouls21.5league 22.0
Penalties0.14league 0.20
Home wins50%league 49%
Sunderland1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Feb 23A · QPR3–02
Newcastle14 with this referee
Record4-5-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W25 Oct 25H · Fulham2–10
- W5 Oct 25H · Nottingham Forest2–00
- D30 Aug 25A · Leeds0–01
- W2 Apr 25H · Brentford2–11
- L19 Oct 24H · Brighton0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland15 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Newcastle15 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
10
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
