Bundesliga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 13 · 14:30 URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
SV Elversberg 6th · 10 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Schalke 04 15th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel243 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
SV Elversberg—%
Draw—%
FC Schalke 04—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Spiesen-Elversberg)

Forecast from 29 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

SV ElversbergFC Schalke 04
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
44 AttackIn forecast 33
37 DefenceIn forecast 50
60 Form indexContext 41
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SV Elversberg

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Schalke 04

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SV ElversbergFC Schalke 04
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17
1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
2.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.87
+0.55 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
67% Scored inContext 33%
17% Clean sheetsContext 33%
11.17 ShotsContext 10.17
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
42% On target shareContext 34%
8.17 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
72% Box shareContext 72%
18% ConversionContext 7%
3.20 OffsidesContext 3.00
22.00 Shots allowedContext 15.17
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.17
8.50 BlocksContext 4.50
3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.17
59% Save rateContext 84%
44% PossessionIn forecast 40%
382 PassesContext 349
303 Accurate passesContext 243
80% Pass accuracyContext 70%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.85
11.67 FoulsContext 9.33
13.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.17 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext -0.42
80% Scored inContext 50%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
11.20 ShotsContext 11.00
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
38% On target shareContext 36%
7.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.67
66% Box shareContext 75%
21% ConversionContext 8%
2.86 OffsidesContext 2.63
16.90 Shots allowedContext 12.70
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
6.33 BlocksContext 3.40
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
59% Save rateContext 79%
48% PossessionIn forecast 45%
387 PassesContext 380
309 Accurate passesContext 278
80% Pass accuracyContext 73%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.84
11.50 FoulsContext 8.90
12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SV Elversberg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km702 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · FC Augsburg4–31.4 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Union Berlin0–11.3 xPts
  • D20 SepA · FC Schalke 040–01.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Bayern München1–20.5 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts
FC Schalke 04
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel243 km986 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · FSV Mainz 050–11.4 xPts
  • L11 OctA · SC Freiburg1–20.8 xPts
  • D20 SepH · SV Elversberg0–01.7 xPts
  • W11 SepA · Union Berlin3–11.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bayern München0–00.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SV Elversberg FC Schalke 04
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Feb7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km243 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways702 km986 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SV Elversberg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs FC Augsburg (H) 4–3, 17 Oct
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher 10N. Darvich 25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa
FC Schalke 04 Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs FSV Mainz 05 (H) 0–1, 17 Oct
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay 25N. Katić 5T. Becker
8R. Gosens 13Satoshi Tanaka 23S. El-Faouzi 17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche 19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SV Elversberg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Schalke 04 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SV Elversberg · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
2.67
Conceded
2.33
FC Schalke 04 · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentSV ElversbergFC Schalke 04
FC Augsburg W 4–3 H L 0–3 A
Union Berlin L 0–1 A W 3–1 A
Bayern München L 1–2 H D 0–0 H
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 SV Elversberg wins1 draws2 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%
  • 20 Sep 2026FC Schalke 040–0SV Elversberg
  • 12 Apr 2026SV Elversberg1–2FC Schalke 04
  • 8 Nov 2025FC Schalke 041–0SV Elversberg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SV ElversbergFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 2.000.67
Conceded per game 1.831.17
Match goals 3.831.83
Over 1.5 67%50%
Over 2.5 67%50%
Over 3.5 50%17%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 17%33%
Failed to score 33%67%
Games66
SV ElversbergFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 2.000.67
Conceded per game 1.831.17
Match goals 3.831.83
Over 1.5 67%50%
Over 2.5 67%50%
Over 3.5 50%17%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 17%33%
Failed to score 33%67%
Games66

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SV ElversbergFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won3.673.60
Corners conceded8.005.40
Match total11.679.0010.72
Over 8.567% 4/660% 3/5
Over 9.567% 4/620% 1/5
Over 10.550% 3/620% 1/5
Cards
Cards2.171.00
Opponent cards1.832.17
Match total4.003.173.51
Over 3.550% 3/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/60% 0/6
SV ElversbergFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won4.003.44
Corners conceded6.204.89
Match total10.208.3310.72
Over 8.550% 5/1056% 5/9
Over 9.550% 5/1022% 2/9
Over 10.530% 3/1011% 1/9
Cards
Cards1.901.20
Opponent cards2.301.90
Match total4.203.103.51
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SV Elversberg6 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 4 76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
7 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
5 5 76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg Eintracht Frankfurt Feb 1314:30 FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Mönchengladbach Feb 1314:30 Borussia Dortmund VfB Stuttgart Feb 1314:30 1899 Hoffenheim SC Paderborn 07 Feb 1314:30 FC Augsburg Werder Bremen Feb 1314:30 RB Leipzig Bayer Leverkusen Feb 1314:30 Union Berlin Bayern München Feb 1314:30 1.FC Köln Hamburger SV Feb 1314:30 SV Elversberg FC Schalke 04 Feb 1314:30