1.FC Köln vs Hamburger SV

Bundesliga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 13 · 14:30 Cologne Stadium, Köln

1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played LLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel357 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

1.FC Köln—%

Draw—%

Hamburger SV—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Köln)

Forecast from 29 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend 1.FC Köln 83% Both teams scored Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Streak Hamburger SV 3 Wins in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row

Team strength

1.FC Köln

Hamburger SV

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 40

36 AttackIn forecast 37

36 DefenceIn forecast 43

26 Form indexContext 70

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—

Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC Köln

Hamburger SV

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

83% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 17%

16.33 ShotsContext 11.00

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

33% On target shareContext 33%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

71% Box shareContext 56%

8% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.67 Shots allowedContext 19.17

6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

3.83 BlocksContext 5.33

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

71% Save rateContext 62%

48% PossessionIn forecast 40%

417 PassesContext 346

344 Accurate passesContext 270

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.54

11.17 FoulsContext 14.17

11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

90% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.30 ShotsContext 11.60

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 35%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

73% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.17 OffsidesContext 1.86

14.50 Shots allowedContext 16.40

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.80 BlocksContext 4.56

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

60% Save rateContext 64%

47% PossessionIn forecast 40%

414 PassesContext 348

343 Accurate passesContext 275

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.71

9.80 FoulsContext 12.40

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km540 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Hamburger SV LLWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel357 km828 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1.FC Köln	Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Feb	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	540 km	828 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct

1M. Schwäbe(G)

3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen

37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson

10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe

15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	1.FC Köln	Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart	L 1–4 A	W 1–0 H
1899 Hoffenheim	W 3–2 H	W 3–2 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 1.FC Köln wins1 draws1 Hamburger SV wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

19 Sep 2026Hamburger SV2–11.FC Köln
14 Mar 2026Hamburger SV1–11.FC Köln
2 Nov 20251.FC Köln4–1Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1.FC Köln	Hamburger SV
Scored per game	1.33	1.00
Conceded per game	1.83	2.50
Match goals	3.17	3.50
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	67%
Over 3.5	33%	50%
Both teams scored	83%	33%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	17%	50%
Games	6	6

	1.FC Köln	Hamburger SV
Scored per game	1.30	1.30
Conceded per game	2.30	2.10
Match goals	3.60	3.40
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	90%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1.FC Köln	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.83
Corners conceded	6.33	6.00
Match total	12.33	9.83	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.33
Opponent cards	1.67	2.17
Match total	3.50	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	0% 0/6

	1.FC Köln	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	3.60
Corners conceded	5.44	6.40
Match total	11.22	10.00	10.72
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.50
Opponent cards	1.70	2.60
Match total	3.50	4.10	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.