FC Schalke 04
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel447 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
FC Schalke 04—%
Draw—%
Union Berlin—%
Weather (Gelsenkirchen)
Forecast from 22 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for FC Schalke 04 and Union Berlin. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FC Schalke 04
Union Berlin
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
33
AttackIn forecast
42
50
DefenceIn forecast
41
41
Form indexContext
38
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Schalke 04Union Berlin
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.83
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.09
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
33%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.17
ShotsContext
12.83
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
34%
On target shareContext
35%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
72%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
15.17
Shots allowedContext
15.67
6.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.50
BlocksContext
4.20
5.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
84%
Save rateContext
56%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
349
PassesContext
359
243
Accurate passesContext
268
70%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.58
9.33
FoulsContext
11.67
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
0.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
50%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.30
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.88
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
75%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.40
BlocksContext
4.13
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
79%
Save rateContext
57%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
380
PassesContext
372
278
Accurate passesContext
285
73%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.74
8.90
FoulsContext
10.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Schalke 04
DWDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km986 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Union Berlin
LLLWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel447 km847 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Schalke 04 |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 986 km | 847 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Schalke 04
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
Union Berlin
Last XI · not confirmed
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe
2O. Uduokhai
4Z. Van Den Bosch
19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer
20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri
11W. Jeong
8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Schalke 04
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union Berlin
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
FC Schalke 04 · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Union Berlin · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | FC Schalke 04 | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 0–0 H | L 0–7 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 FC Schalke 04 wins1 draws1 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 11 Sep 2026Union Berlin1–3FC Schalke 04
- 19 Feb 2023Union Berlin0–0FC Schalke 04
- 27 Aug 2022FC Schalke 041–6Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Schalke 04 | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 2.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 3.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| FC Schalke 04 | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 3.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 30% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Schalke 04 | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.83 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 4.50 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.60 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.10 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
9
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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