Bundesliga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 13 · 14:30 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel377 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
RB Leipzig—%
Draw—%
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leipzig)

Forecast from 29 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

RB LeipzigBayer Leverkusen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 79
76 AttackIn forecast 87
53 DefenceIn forecast 79
78 Form indexContext 94
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RB LeipzigBayer Leverkusen
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
2.13 xGVia Att/Def 2.19
1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.48
83% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.67 ShotsContext 19.67
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.17
37% On target shareContext 31%
12.67 Shots in the boxContext 13.83
69% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 14%
1.25 OffsidesContext 1.33
17.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50
7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
4.00 BlocksContext 2.67
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20
77% Save rateContext 52%
53% PossessionIn forecast 58%
508 PassesContext 539
441 Accurate passesContext 470
87% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.11 Team ratingContext 7.02
9.83 FoulsContext 12.33
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.92 xGVia Att/Def 2.35
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
90% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.40 ShotsContext 18.50
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60
36% On target shareContext 36%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 13.30
69% Box shareContext 71%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.29 OffsidesContext 1.89
14.20 Shots allowedContext 12.20
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
3.00 BlocksContext 3.10
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
69% Save rateContext 63%
54% PossessionIn forecast 58%
508 PassesContext 537
443 Accurate passesContext 470
87% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.97 Team ratingContext 7.06
9.30 FoulsContext 11.90
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km588 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel377 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RB Leipzig Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Feb7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km377 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways588 km944 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
4.67
Conceded
0.00
Bayer Leverkusen · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.67
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 RB Leipzig wins1 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.10 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%
  • 20 Sep 2026Bayer Leverkusen2–0RB Leipzig
  • 2 May 2026Bayer Leverkusen4–1RB Leipzig
  • 20 Dec 2025RB Leipzig1–3Bayer Leverkusen
  • 25 Jan 2025RB Leipzig2–2Bayer Leverkusen
  • 31 Aug 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–3RB Leipzig
  • 20 Jan 2024RB Leipzig2–3Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

RB LeipzigBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 2.672.67
Conceded per game 1.831.50
Match goals 4.504.17
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 83%83%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 50%33%
Failed to score 17%0%
Games66
RB LeipzigBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 2.102.40
Conceded per game 2.001.30
Match goals 4.103.70
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 40%40%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RB LeipzigBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.507.33
Corners conceded6.833.33
Match total12.3310.6610.72
Over 8.5100% 6/650% 3/6
Over 9.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 10.567% 4/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.001.33
Opponent cards1.502.17
Match total2.503.503.51
Over 3.533% 2/667% 4/6
Over 4.517% 1/633% 2/6
RB LeipzigBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.806.70
Corners conceded5.703.50
Match total10.5010.2010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 9.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 10.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.301.20
Opponent cards1.301.80
Match total2.603.003.51
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg Eintracht Frankfurt Feb 1314:30 FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Mönchengladbach Feb 1314:30 Borussia Dortmund VfB Stuttgart Feb 1314:30 1899 Hoffenheim SC Paderborn 07 Feb 1314:30 FC Augsburg Werder Bremen Feb 1314:30 RB Leipzig Bayer Leverkusen Feb 1314:30 Union Berlin Bayern München Feb 1314:30 1.FC Köln Hamburger SV Feb 1314:30 SV Elversberg FC Schalke 04 Feb 1314:30