Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 72). Absences weigh more on Aston Villa. Tottenham had 15.1 days of rest, Aston Villa 14 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days15.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Tottenham38%
Draw26%
Aston Villa36%
Tottenham36%
Draw27%
Aston Villa36%
Tottenham37%
Draw26%
Aston Villa37%
Tottenham31%
Draw26%
Aston Villa44%
Tottenham37%
Draw27%
Aston Villa35%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 130
Team strength
Tottenham
Aston Villa
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
56
AttackIn forecast
83
74
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamAston Villa
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
86%
Scored inContext
43%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.00
ShotsContext
10.86
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
34%
On target shareContext
30%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
69%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.57
Shots allowedContext
11.57
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.50
BlocksContext
4.14
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
83%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
450
PassesContext
465
379
Accurate passesContext
399
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.00
FoulsContext
10.14
9.57
Fouls sufferedContext
13.57
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
10.00
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
69%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.90
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.67
BlocksContext
4.10
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
73%
Save rateContext
80%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
433
PassesContext
440
364
Accurate passesContext
373
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.60
FoulsContext
10.70
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel163 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
24D. Spence
37M. van de Ven
4K. Danso
23Pedro Porro
30R. Bentancur
6João Palhinha
28W. Odobert
7X. Simons
20M. Kudus
11M. Tel
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
24A. Onana
44B. Kamara
7J. McGinn
27M. Rogers
29E. Guessand
17D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Aston Villa-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Aston Villa · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Tottenham wins0 draws5 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.20
Over 2.570%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 16 May 2025Aston Villa2–0Tottenham
- 3 Nov 2024Tottenham4–1Aston Villa
- 10 Mar 2024Aston Villa0–4Tottenham
- 26 Nov 2023Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
- 13 May 2023Aston Villa2–1Tottenham
- 1 Jan 2023Tottenham0–2Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 1.86 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 0.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 1.78 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 33% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 44% | |
| Games | 7 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 11.83 | 10.72 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.29 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.20 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 130 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.68
Red cards0.06league 0.13
Cards 5+36%league 42%
Fouls21.8league 22.0
Penalties0.16league 0.21
Home wins49%league 49%
Tottenham12 with this referee
Record5-2-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L30 Aug 25H · Bournemouth0–12
- L15 Jan 25A · Arsenal1–21
- L5 Dec 24A · Bournemouth0–12
- W7 Apr 24H · Nottingham Forest3–12
- W31 Dec 23H · Bournemouth3–13
Aston Villa10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Sep 25A · Everton0–03
- W5 Apr 25H · Nottingham Forest2–12
- D13 May 24H · Liverpool3–31
- W12 Nov 23H · Fulham3–12
- L3 Sep 23A · Liverpool0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham7 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Aston Villa7 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
