Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel262 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Tottenham—%
Draw—%
Manchester United—%
Weather (London)
Forecast from 8 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Tottenham and Manchester United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Manchester United
+0.26
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.56xG against1.30
-
Alert
Manchester United
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Manchester United
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
TottenhamManchester United
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
56
AttackIn forecast
72
74
DefenceIn forecast
80
58
Form indexContext
38
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamManchester United
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
43%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.14
ShotsContext
19.57
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
26%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
60%
Box shareContext
55%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.14
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
4.00
BlocksContext
2.86
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
535
PassesContext
521
470
Accurate passesContext
450
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.86
FoulsContext
9.57
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
17.60
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
24%
On target shareContext
31%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
67%
Box shareContext
60%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.90
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
3.20
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
64%
Save rateContext
69%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
510
PassesContext
507
443
Accurate passesContext
439
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.20
FoulsContext
10.00
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
DDLDW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Manchester United
LDDLD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 276 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Last XI · not confirmed
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
4T. Adarabioyo
6J. van Hecke
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
10J. Maddison
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Manchester United
Last XI · not confirmed
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba
17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes
18Y. Tielemans
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Manchester United
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Manchester United · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 14 meetings
4 Tottenham wins4 draws2 Manchester United wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.10
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 10 Oct 2026Manchester United1–1Tottenham
- 7 Feb 2026Manchester United2–0Tottenham
- 8 Nov 2025Tottenham2–2Manchester United
- 21 May 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
- 16 Feb 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
- 29 Sep 2024Manchester United0–3Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.71 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.86 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 4.57 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.10 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.11 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Tottenham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Manchester United7 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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