Premier League Gameweek 37 Sun, May 23 · 15:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel113 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Manchester City—%
Draw—%
Aston Villa—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 8 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester City and Aston Villa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester CityAston Villa
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
91 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
92 AttackIn forecast 83
82 DefenceIn forecast 78
93 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester CityAston Villa
2.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
100% Scored inContext 57%
43% Clean sheetsContext 29%
14.57 ShotsContext 11.86
5.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
36% On target shareContext 27%
10.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
70% Box shareContext 64%
19% ConversionContext 8%
2.17 OffsidesContext 1.75
11.43 Shots allowedContext 15.86
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
3.00 BlocksContext 3.83
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
72% Save rateContext 71%
64% PossessionIn forecast 48%
635 PassesContext 410
567 Accurate passesContext 339
89% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.23 Team ratingContext 6.72
10.71 FoulsContext 10.71
14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
100% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.50 ShotsContext 13.60
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
36% On target shareContext 35%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
69% Box shareContext 65%
15% ConversionContext 13%
1.89 OffsidesContext 1.57
11.20 Shots allowedContext 15.60
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
2.50 BlocksContext 4.22
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
68% Save rateContext 73%
62% PossessionIn forecast 46%
606 PassesContext 404
541 Accurate passesContext 340
89% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.91
11.00 FoulsContext 10.50
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km555 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts
Aston Villa
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel113 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester City Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways555 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Aston Villa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Aston Villa · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Manchester City wins1 draws4 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.30 Over 2.570% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%
  • 24 May 2026Manchester City1–2Aston Villa
  • 26 Oct 2025Aston Villa1–0Manchester City
  • 22 Apr 2025Manchester City2–1Aston Villa
  • 21 Dec 2024Aston Villa2–1Manchester City
  • 3 Apr 2024Manchester City4–1Aston Villa
  • 6 Dec 2023Aston Villa1–0Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Manchester CityAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 2.711.00
Conceded per game 1.001.57
Match goals 3.712.57
Over 1.5 71%57%
Over 2.5 71%57%
Over 3.5 43%43%
Both teams scored 57%43%
Clean sheets 43%29%
Failed to score 0%43%
Games77
Manchester CityAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 2.401.80
Conceded per game 1.301.40
Match goals 3.703.20
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 70%70%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 60%50%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester CityAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.573.14
Corners conceded4.144.29
Match total9.717.439.49
Over 8.571% 5/729% 2/7
Over 9.557% 4/714% 1/7
Over 10.557% 4/714% 1/7
Cards
Cards1.432.14
Opponent cards1.863.14
Match total3.295.284.17
Over 3.529% 2/771% 5/7
Over 4.514% 1/757% 4/7
Manchester CityAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.404.00
Corners conceded3.705.00
Match total10.109.009.49
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 10.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.501.80
Opponent cards1.502.80
Match total3.004.604.17
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Newcastle Crystal Palace May 2315:00 Bournemouth Chelsea May 2315:00 Fulham Coventry May 2315:00 Everton Arsenal May 2315:00 Tottenham Manchester United May 2315:00 Manchester City Aston Villa May 2315:00 Brighton Liverpool May 2315:00 Brentford Hull City May 2315:00 Leeds Sunderland May 2315:00 Nottingham Forest Ipswich May 2315:00