Premier League Gameweek 37 Sun, May 23 · 15:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel398 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Newcastle—%
Draw—%
Crystal Palace—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

Forecast from 8 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Newcastle and Crystal Palace. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

NewcastleCrystal Palace
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
71 Current StrengthIn forecast 64
61 AttackIn forecast 64
61 DefenceIn forecast 54
35 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—
Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NewcastleCrystal Palace
1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.43
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.35
1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.06
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.06
86% Scored inContext 57%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
12.29 ShotsContext 10.14
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71
29% On target shareContext 37%
7.57 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
62% Box shareContext 70%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.71 OffsidesContext 3.00
17.43 Shots allowedContext 17.86
5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.14
7.57 BlocksContext 5.29
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71
62% Save rateContext 61%
52% PossessionIn forecast 43%
430 PassesContext 404
359 Accurate passesContext 326
84% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.70
12.14 FoulsContext 10.00
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.14
2.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.08
80% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.40 ShotsContext 11.00
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
32% On target shareContext 36%
7.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
59% Box shareContext 71%
11% ConversionContext 15%
2.44 OffsidesContext 2.50
17.50 Shots allowedContext 16.30
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
6.90 BlocksContext 4.70
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
68% Save rateContext 63%
53% PossessionIn forecast 45%
452 PassesContext 416
380 Accurate passesContext 341
84% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.77
11.00 FoulsContext 10.50
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km555 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
  • L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts
Crystal Palace
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel398 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Newcastle Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways555 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley
7Joelinton 6Nico González
11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Newcastle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Crystal Palace Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50
Crystal Palace · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentNewcastleCrystal Palace
Leeds L 1–4 A D 0–0 A
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Newcastle wins4 draws2 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.60 Over 2.530% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 30%
  • 12 Apr 2026Crystal Palace2–1Newcastle
  • 4 Jan 2026Newcastle2–0Crystal Palace
  • 16 Apr 2025Newcastle5–0Crystal Palace
  • 30 Nov 2024Crystal Palace1–1Newcastle
  • 24 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2–0Newcastle
  • 21 Oct 2023Newcastle4–0Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

NewcastleCrystal PalaceForecast
Scored per game 1.431.29
Conceded per game 2.002.43
Match goals 3.433.71
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 71%71%
Over 3.5 57%71%
Both teams scored 71%57%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
NewcastleCrystal PalaceForecast
Scored per game 1.401.60
Conceded per game 1.802.20
Match goals 3.203.80
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 50%70%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

NewcastleCrystal PalaceLeague
Corners
Corners won4.573.67
Corners conceded5.296.00
Match total9.869.679.49
Over 8.557% 4/750% 3/6
Over 9.543% 3/733% 2/6
Over 10.529% 2/733% 2/6
Cards
Cards2.711.43
Opponent cards2.141.57
Match total4.853.004.17
Over 3.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 4.557% 4/729% 2/7
NewcastleCrystal PalaceLeague
Corners
Corners won4.803.89
Corners conceded4.605.22
Match total9.409.119.49
Over 8.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 9.550% 5/1033% 3/9
Over 10.530% 3/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.201.60
Opponent cards2.202.00
Match total4.403.604.17
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3 2 0-15
16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 5 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
5 2 61-75
2 5 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Newcastle Crystal Palace May 2315:00 Bournemouth Chelsea May 2315:00 Fulham Coventry May 2315:00 Everton Arsenal May 2315:00 Tottenham Manchester United May 2315:00 Manchester City Aston Villa May 2315:00 Brighton Liverpool May 2315:00 Brentford Hull City May 2315:00 Leeds Sunderland May 2315:00 Nottingham Forest Ipswich May 2315:00