Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel124 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Leeds—%
Draw—%
Sunderland—%
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
Forecast from 8 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Leeds and Sunderland. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Leeds
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Leeds
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.29xG against1.65
-
Insight
Leeds
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Leeds
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Leeds
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.29xG against1.65
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
LeedsSunderland
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
69
AttackIn forecast
62
77
DefenceIn forecast
59
64
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsSunderland
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.65
86%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.57
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
65%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.83
14.00
Shots allowedContext
14.57
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.17
BlocksContext
4.29
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
86%
Save rateContext
46%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
385
PassesContext
400
302
Accurate passesContext
316
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.62
12.71
FoulsContext
11.43
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.14
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
14.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
31%
On target shareContext
30%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
62%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
4.89
BlocksContext
3.90
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
77%
Save rateContext
52%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
376
PassesContext
395
292
Accurate passesContext
316
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.90
FoulsContext
12.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
DWDLD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Sunderland
WLLWL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel124 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 15 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović
30N. Elvedi
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Sunderland
Last XI · not confirmed
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sunderland
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Sunderland · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Brentford | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Leeds wins3 draws2 Sunderland wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 3 Mar 2026Leeds0–1Sunderland
- 28 Dec 2025Sunderland1–1Leeds
- 17 Feb 2025Leeds2–1Sunderland
- 4 Oct 2024Sunderland2–2Leeds
- 9 Apr 2024Leeds0–0Sunderland
- 12 Dec 2023Sunderland1–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Leeds | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 8.14 | 8.43 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 3.85 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Leeds | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sunderland7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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